While the afternoon was drier than our computer model guidance had indicated, things are going to turn wet very shortly. Some weak subsidence developed causing the pause in the rain across our region. Radar is indicating a good sized band of heavy showers and thunderstorms that will be moving northeast from the Atlantic Ocean within the next few hours. Some strong thunderstorms with cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and torrential rainfall are quite a possibility. Some areas could pick up a quick one to one and one half inches of rain from this round.
Additional bands of thunderstorms and heavy rain showers will be likely through Wednesday. I am expecting more widespread activity on Wednesday than what we observed today.
On Thursday and Friday there will be scattered thunderstorms. With some breaks in the clouds, some greater instability could develop. This means that some scattered severe thunderstorms are possible during these two days, along with the continued threat of locally heavy rainfall.
An aerial flood watch has been continued for Camden, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington, Somerset, Sussex, Warren, and Western Monmouth Counties. Two to four inches of rain with locally higher amounts are quite possible from through late Wednesday Night. It wouldn’t be surprising to see some extremely local amounts as high six to eight inches over very small areas, but areas that receive several thunderstorms or training of thunderstorms.
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