Bands of thunderstorms impacted much of New Jersey on Wednesday. Much of area received 0.60” to 1.50” of rain. Northeastern New Jersey received the jackpot with 3” to 4” of rain. Southwestern New Jersey did not do as well with amounts under one-half inch. When added to the rain totals since Monday, some areas are entering the 3” to 6” range….again thus far mainly in Northeastern New Jersey. The Raritan and Passaic River basins will probably experience some flood warnings in the next several hours, if not tomorrow…especially if additional heavy rain occurs….although the damage may have already been done in Northeastern New Jersey.
New Jersey escaped the severe weather and just narrowly. A rare tornado occurred in Northeast Philadelphia. This tornado was the ninth tornado ever in Philadelphia and the last one to occur was back in 1999. This same thunderstorm moved over Burlington County and the touchdown occurred moments after the storm crossed the Delaware River.
Confidence is increasing that severe weather could be a possibility this afternoon and early this evening. Both the GFS and NAM model from 00z agree on thunderstorm development in our area at or several hours before 6:00 p.m. This is followed by some sunshine and breaks in the cloudiness for the first time in days for some portions of our area. There could be some areas of dense fog in the morning and this may limit the sunshine initially. The sunshine should increase the instability and cause the atmosphere to become fairly unstable. Shear will exist along with plenty of moisture. This cold pool will also be settling along with a lower freezing level. Therefore, large hail and isolated tornadoes…in addition to damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Highs will rise into the mid-seventies.
With the threat of slow-moving thunderstorms and plenty of moisture in existence, some very excessive rain amounts could occur. But these thunderstorms will be scattered and some communities could not see much in the way of measurable rain while others are observing flash flooding. At this time, there has not been any clear indication as to whether the flood watch will be extended or if it will be replaced by a flash flood watch. The Passaic Basin will not be able to handle any additional rainfall, let alone flash flooding rains.
On Friday, it is a repeat, but maybe a bit less coverage. The GFS actually has a little more on Friday in the way of convective development than on Thursday. Needless to say, more morning sunshine could set the stage for severe thunderstorm development. Flooding will once again be highly localized, but possible.
The 00z model suite seems to be a bit more aggressive with the Saturday development of convection than in previous model runs. I still think it will be more isolated and also more contained to the east-northeast. It wouldn’t surprise me if it is one of these boardwalk thunderstorm days.
No comments:
Post a Comment