A backdoor cold front this afternoon and this evening will help to cause enough lift in the atmosphere for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the higher resolution modeling is suggesting thunderstorms will be confined to Northern and North-Central New Jersey today. It is here where the best forcing will be located and it is reasonable to assume this is the highest threat area for convection.
However, there are a few higher resolution models that are suggesting activity region-wide. Given the past several days, the moisture content of the air, and the current temperatures: I think the activity will not just be confined to the North through the late afternoon and evening hours. Not everyone will see thunder and rain today, but some will.
I think the sea-breeze front will help to aid in the lift and cause some possible additional thunderstorm development. The radar is already showing the first signs of a sea breeze front, although convective temperatures have not been reached yet to spark t-storms.
Where thunderstorms form: Heavy rainfall, cloud to ground lightning, hail, and gusty winds will be possible.
No comments:
Post a Comment