I have not been too pleased this evening with the handling of the storm system on all of the computer models. The modeling has really overdone the precipitation amounts over the past twenty-four hours. The low pressure center is located near Ohio. We are on the northeast side and I clearly see a descending motion of the air or what is called subsidence. This can happen with strong systems and cause precipitation forecast busts. So far it is this descending motion that is causing the precipitation shield to erode as it moves inland from the Atlantic Ocean.
The modeling is continuing to show more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms developing later today. They show an enhancement occurring later this morning and lingering into the evening. At this present time, I think at least an inch of rainfall can be shaved off of the forecast for the Tues-Wed, perhaps as much as two inches. (Some areas have already picked up 2" since Sunday by the way) Therefore, the widespread range will be one to two inches now. There is still going to localized maximized banding of 3 to 6 inches of rain. This is where heavy showers and thunderstorms will train over the same locations. Determining where these bands will develop is quite difficult, especially given the poor handling of the rain on Tuesday. One model set suggests over Delaware and Northeast New Jersey. The Northeast New Jersey being the sweet spot for the event seems to be holding true thus far, although the real argument can be made that Long Island is experiencing the best dynamics. With weak instability, the problem could be the lack of thunderstorm coverage which can quickly yield excessive rainfall as was the case on Sunday and Monday.
Interestingly enough, some areas could see quite a bit of locally torrential rains on Thursday and Friday with thunderstorms, perhaps more than on Wednesday. Instability looks greater with some peaks of sunshine to get more numerous thunderstorm development.
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