Another last minute slight risk designation from the Storm Prediction Center, but this one was somewhat expected. Sunshine has developed across much of the region leading to steepening lapse rates and increase surface based CAPE. In other words…instability is increasing.
This afternoon, we have a few factors that will come together. A cold pool aloft and a low freezing level will allow for hail to be a potential with several thunderstorms, some of which could be large in nature. In addition, shear will allow for perhaps an isolated tornado/spin-up. Obviously, a few storms could also produce damaging straight-line winds. I am concerned that one or two of these cells could produce hail up to the size of golf balls.
A weather watch is being considered for parts or all of the region. We will continue to follow the developments.
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