A week of thunderstorms

An onshore flow and a warm front to our west have really done a good job locking in the cooler in the eastern counties of New Jersey. Temperatures have been stuck in the middle and upper fifties in most of the eastern counties. Meanwhile, lower to mid sixties exist in the Central and Southern New Jersey interior. The onshore flow will not reverse itself until a stubborn warm front makes forward motion to the northeast. This will not happen until shortly after sunrise and therefore, fog could settle in for several areas until the wind shift happens. A northeast breeze or any scattered showers with the warm front may tend to keep the fog from become dense in some locations or widespread. But there is a chance of some thick fog in some areas if mixing relaxes.

The warm front should clear the southwestern areas of New Jersey first with the Central New Jersey counties following. There could be some sharp differences north and south of the frontal boundary. Clearing skies should follow the warm front passage and with the gates open for a southerly flow, a quick rebound in the temperature department is anticipated. The warm sector counties will at least approach 80 degrees, if not exceed it. Pieces of energy will ride along the warm front and since the front will be just north of our area, we will be affected by energy pieces. When disturbances ride along a warm front and you are directly south of it, it is typical for severe thunderstorms to develop. If we bake for a few hours, there is no doubt surface based instability will develop in the afternoon and linger through the evening. Storm coverage will be scattered. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a tornado is all on the table.

A cold front approaches the region on Tuesday. However, any morning fog should give way to sunshine and a very warm and humid day. Mid to upper eighties can be expected. This will once again allow instability to increase and therefore thunderstorms and showers will develop in a pre-frontal trough in the afternoon and evening. The cold front approaching the warm sector and some waves on the front helping to energize it suggests another potential for severe thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially with the rain from last week lowering the amounts needed for rain to begin to cause flash flooding and flooding.

On Tuesday Night through Thursday, the cold front stalls right over or just south of the region. Waves of energy will ride along the front and therefore showers and thunderstorms will possible throughout the entire period. The exact stalling point has not been determined. If some areas remain in caught in the warm sector, there will be an increased risk for stronger thunderstorm activity and they will also be more humid. But even right along and north of the front, thunderstorms on the strong and heavy side will be possible. Heavy rainfall is also a concern during this period as some thunderstorms could train over the same locations. Areas north of the front may see a reduced chance of storms and a nice day…maybe Thursday could be the day for that?

The stalled front then returns to the north as a warm front on Friday. Warm air advection showers and thunderstorms will be possible. A cold front will move through the region on Sunday and will be the trigger for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and especially on Sunday. I wonder if this front will clear the region for Memorial Day. More severe weather and flooding concerns will exist during the weekend.