Several inches of rain possible the next 7 Days

Finally, we have some weather worth mentioning and discussing. After a very quiet period, the high pressure area that maintained control of fair weather in our region is breaking down. As the high pressure area breaks down, an area of low pressure will move from the Mississippi valley into the Ohio Valley. This low pressure area will move extremely slowly across that region as the atmospheric traffic jam continues. Basically, as slow as the high was in position over us, it will be that slow for the low before a push to bounce this jammed traffic out occurs late next week. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Moisture should be able to stream into our region for the next few days, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. Initially, through Monday, the features will be more scattered and it will hard to pinpoint the exact area for development…but more widespread rains are likely Tuesday and Wednesday when the flow will be most enhanced.

At this point, isolated and in-significant rain showers are likely on Saturday. The models are no longer suggesting much for Saturday, delaying the arrival of this extremely slow moving weather pattern. It should be another mostly cloudy day with a peak of sunshine here and there.

For Sunday, the chances for showers and thunderstorms look pretty good at this moment. If some peaks of sunshine break through the clouds on Sunday and there is no thunderstorm activity ongoing, then some scattered severe thunderstorms would also be a possibility. Otherwise, any thunderstorm could contain localized heavy rainfall and they could be very slow movers suggesting flash flooding is not out of the question. As the case this week with the convection development that has been occurring with the same system, hail and strong wind gusts would be the main severe threats.

For Monday, another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely. The severe threat will be highly dependent on convective cloud debris and any potential ongoing action from the overnight. Hail and strong wind gusts appear to be the primary threats. Any thunderstorm could contain localized heavy rainfall and they could be very slow movers suggesting flash flooding is not out of the question.

The stationary system and frontal boundary makes the closest approach on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the flow most enhanced at this point and time, this is when the heaviest rainfall will occur and the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity of this entire stretch. The flood threat will be highly dependent on how bad the damage is on Sunday and Monday. However, folks living in low-lying areas, along creeks, along streams, and along rivers should be aware. Some of our slower guidance keeps the chance for thunderstorms and showers for Thursday and Friday.