Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms in South Jersey

The recent satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds developing in Southern New Jersey. It is also becoming more humid even throughout Central New Jersey at this hour. The result will be some increasing instability, shear, and lapse rates.

With several spokes of energy sweeping through the region and old convective boundaries from prior convection, afternoon heating should be able to fire up scattered thunderstorms and showers. Any thunderstorm has the potential to become severe. Much of New Jersey is in a 5% risk for damaging wind gusts with South Jersey placed in a 15% risk for damaging wind gusts. The 15% warrants a slight risk designation. Otherwise, the entire state is in a 5% risk for large hail and a 2% risk for a tornado. The percentages represent the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a point.

I’ll keep an eye on the Storm Prediction Center to see if they place portions of the area under a watch box. It will be important to monitor the breaks in the clouds to see how far north the sunshine occurs. Even with extensive clouds on Saturday, some areas observed some intense night thunderstorms. Therefore, with the humid air mass in place, even cloudy areas could see a thunderstorm that is near or at severe limits and thus the low probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center.