Major Winter Storm To Strike New Jersey

Thanks for your waiting...Blog Finished.
A winter storm warning has been issued for Sussex, Hunterdon, Somerset, Warren, Morris, Mercer, Middlesex, Passaic, Essex, Union, Hudson, and Bergen Counties. This is for both part one and part two of the storm.

A winter storm watch has been issued for Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Ocean, and Monmouth Counties. This is for part two of the storm only.

A winter weather advisory has been issued for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Ocean, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties. This is for part one of the storm only.

Criterion:

A winter storm warning means four inches or more of snow or sleet and/or 0.25” or greater of ice accretion is imminent or occurring. North of Interstate 195, the criteria for snow is six inches.

A winter storm watch means four inches or more of snow or sleet and/or 0.25” or greater of ice accretion is possible. North of Interstate 195, the criteria for snow is six inches.
A winter weather advisory means two inches of snow or sleet/and or 0.01” to 0.24” of ice accretion is imminent or occurring. North of Interstate 195, the criteria for snow is three inches.

A serious and very dangerous winter storm is about to impact New Jersey. This storm will bring different weather elements to different parts of the state. From surveying members of the public today, they are very confused about what to expect. There simply is not enough time to explain all the details for each part of the state on television or radio. So I will try to break things down here the best I can.

I am expecting snow to break out across much of our region late tonight into Tuesday Morning. The snow is the result of warmer air riding over colder air. This is called overrunning induced precipitation in meteorology. Eventually, the warmer air will cause the air aloft to rise above freezing and this will begin to melt the snowflakes. However, cold air will hang tough at the surface and below freezing temperatures will remain stubborn in the interior. Therefore, freezing rain can be expected. The layer of below freezing temperatures at the surface at first may be large enough for the raindrops to refreeze before hitting the surface. This is sleet. Otherwise, raindrops will freeze when they make contact with a below freezing surface making it freezing rain. As the warmer air makes inroads aloft, the precipitation intensity will lighten and shift northward. Therefore, Central and Southern New Jersey may only experience freezing drizzle into the evening. The precipitation should remain snow for much of Tuesday in the higher terrain and this is where the heaviest available liquid is expected to be. Therefore, I still expect four to eight inches of snow in this area. My snowfall map remains unchanged. Some portions of New Jersey below Interstate 195 could rise a degree or two above freezing as the precipitation intensity lightens. However, temperatures will drop as the sun begins to set slightly and this will mean temperatures falling down below or at freezing in time for part two. The more mixing we see, the less snowfall we will get. This makes for a tricky forecast for snowfall totals.

The second part of the storm is an inland coastal low pressure area. This will be passing to our west and then over/just north of the region on Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The position of the low pressure area places New Jersey on what is considered the “warm side” of the storm. This will take a warm front and try to lift it up through the state from the southeast. However, how far inland and how fast that warm front moves through the state is in question. I have a feeling that this front will have difficulty lifting up through the area. We could have 20 degree difference in temperature from northwest to southeast. The shore could see some 50's on Wednesday with t-storms. The snowpack and an area of high pressure hanging tight to our north initially will continue to make it difficult for the temperatures to warm at the surface in the interior. This is especially true for areas with a northeast wind. This is what we call cold air damming. Therefore, more freezing rain can be expected. I expect this to give way at some point South and East of Trenton, but even along Routes 70, 73, 206, and 130…this may take several hours. The beginning of the second part may have some fairly good available liquid, so even here one-quarter of an inch of ice or more could accumulate before a change to plain rain. Any plain rain that occurs on Wednesday Afternoon could be very heavy and combine with the snow and ice to cause flooding problems. Meanwhile, areas that do not see a change to rain will see a crippling ice storm.

For the flooding potential, the greatest amount of plain rain will be in areas with the least snowfall and the sandy soil. However, should heavy rain impact areas around the Delaware and Raritan Basins, more significant stream, creek, and river flooding would be likely. I think the greatest flooding issue will be poor drainage flooding as the ground is frozen and covered in snow and many roadway drains are blocked by the snow and ice.

Winds could become gusty for a time on Wednesday, especially as the warm front lifts through. Wind gusts could approach or exceed 40 MPH along the coastline. The wind will be gusty inland as well. For areas with ice, wind and ice will make for a bad combination. It takes 0.25” of ice to begin to down trees and wires. The more widespread outages come with 0.50” or greater of freezing rain.

If we do see over 3 inches of wet snow on trees in parts of New Jersey and add the expected ice I am forecast….power outages could be severe in Northwest and Western-Central New Jersey. By the way, the new NAM shows over 1.00” of liquid in just a six hour span…so 1.75” of ice in some areas looks reasonable. That amount of ice has the potential to devastate and destroy. Please see the map to see which area I have highlighted. Keep in mind we have set just about every record, so setting records with icing will not be a shock.

The extended forecast calls for temperatures to drop quickly behind the winter storm on Wednesday Night. For areas that see rain Wednesday Afternoon, roadways may freeze up quickly by nighttime. We should see some snow showers as the storm departs very early on Thursday Morning. Temperatures on Thursday will struggle to rise above freezing.

Friday is the calm before another storm on Saturday. This storm could bring snow inland and a wintry mix in Southeastern New Jersey. Right now, an accumulating snow is expected in the interior. Whether or not this system will bring a more significant snow is in doubt, but I believe it has a potential to do so.

Ice Storm Threat Looms...While Atlantic City could get mild

At this time, there is really nothing new with my forecast from yesterday for this upcoming storm. Later today, I will be putting out an ice accumulation map FOR PART TWO OF THE STORM. Some sections of New Jersey will be dealing with a crippling and damaging ice storm Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning. This could be made worse with wet snow expected just hours before the changeover to freezing rain. There continues to appear to be a sharp temperature contrast between Sussex County and Cape May County.

I would say PSE&G and Jersey Central Power and Light have their work cut out for them if this forecast holds. We could be looking at widespread power outages in portions of the state. Atlantic City Electric may not have as much work as the more significant snow and icing in their service territory will be confined to Burlington and Ocean Counties. Needless to say, the winter storm watch counties should be preparing for power outages. Generators, flash lights, and non-perishable foods would be a good thing to have on hand. We could see some areas have prolonged power outages.

It is very possible the icing period goes on longer than anticipated in some of the areas under the winter storm watch. The trend this winter has been for a colder than expected solution to develop. I would also note to all my readers that the ice is not going to melt as soon as the temperature rises to 33 degrees. If there is more than a tenth of an inch of ice on the surfaces, it will take at a minimum two or three hours to fully melt the ice buildup.

Atlantic City has the potential to exceed 50 degrees on Wednesday, while Trenton will struggle to reach 35 degrees.

Wind and flooding potential with this system as well will be addressed this evening in my forecast.

A winter storm watch is in effect for Salem, Gloucester, Camden, Burlington, Ocean, Monmouth, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Warren, Sussex, Passaic, Bergen, Hudson, Union, and Essex Counties. This watch area also includes the major metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and New York City.

1/30/2011 Extended Forecast: Two Part Storm

After a morning with light icing due to freezing fog, more wintry weather involving icing is one the way.

On Tuesday, warm air advection associated with a warm front will enter our region. The warmer air will ride over the Arctic Air being held in place by an area of high pressure. This will cause precipitation to break out on late Monday Night and especially on Tuesday Morning. This is what we call overrunning in meteorology. The precipitation will begin as snow or a mixture of snow and sleet. The latest models suggest the heaviest precipitation across Northern and Central New Jersey. There could be some light rain at the coastline mixing with sleet, but the models actually do not show much precipitation in this area with part one. The “540 Line” will slowly push northward throughout the day. After the morning round of precipitation, the precipitation will be lighter during a lull between this event and the big inland low for Wednesday. The arrival continued infiltration of warmer air aloft along with lighter precipitation intensity will result in the snow and sleet switching over to rain. There could be a window of opportunity for temperatures to rise above freezing, before falling back a few degrees once the sun sets. Once the temperature falls back, Tuesday Night could feature freezing drizzle and light freezing rain. I have included a snow map as Northern and Central New Jersey could pick up several inches of wet snow. It is a good idea to clean off your roofs as the snow liquid content is very high.

On Wednesday, a very strong low will cut up through the Great Lakes region. This means we will be on the “warmer side” of the storm system. This will draw in warmer oceanic air. Therefore, the chances of this system bringing snow or sleet are low. This looks like freezing rain to rain for many areas. The question will be how many hours of below freezing temperatures and what will be the intensity during that time frame. It is possible some areas receive up to one-half inch or more of liquid before plain rain comes in. The criterion for an ice storm is one-quarter of an inch. So even if you see plain rain by the end of the event, you may have an ice storm prior to the switch to rain. Each storm seems to be colder than the models predict initially, so we will have to watch how the models handle the departure of the cold air at the surface and a high pressure area to our north. The high pressure area could lock the below freezing surface air in for quite a few hours in the interior. The snow on the ground will also aid in keeping the cold air at the surface. This would be classic cold air damming. Areas in Northwestern New Jersey could see wet snow on Wednesday which could changeover to heavy freezing rain.

All in all, widespread icing amounts of 0.25” to 0.50” is likely in interior portions of Central and Southern New Jersey, before any change to plain rain. The most icing will occur close to the Delaware River. Then we will have to nail down whether this ice will linger for more hours during the Wednesday storm or whether this plain rain takes over. Still, 0.25” could down trees and power lines and make travel impossible. I have inserted another map indicating where I feel the best chance of icing will be.

Areas that observe heavy, plain rain have the potential to see widespread and significant poor drainage flooding. Some creek, stream, and even river flooding would be possible should heavy, plain rain fall for several hours around the Delaware River and Raritan River Basins. This rain will combine with a ground loaded with moisture and snow-cover. In addition, the ground is frozen which will increase the runoff further. Needless to say, if you are flood prone you need to watch for the latest forecasts.

Freezing Fog Leaves a Light Coating in parts of NJ

It was certainly a rare thing for parts of New Jersey. Fog dense enough combining with below freezing temperatures that it left a light coating of ice on many surfaces, including trees this morning. The three pictures below were taken at my South Jersey home just around sunrise. While the sun melted the ice quickly, it was a beautiful site to see for those who were up and about early in areas that got the fog. I cannot recall seeing freezing fog leaving this much ice on the trees in all the years following the weather.

Wrightstown reported 8 hours of freezing fog.

Mount Holly reported 2 hours of freezing fog.

Lakehurst reported 1 hour of freezing fog.

Millville reported 2 hours of freezing fog.

Many other sites, including these, reported fog and mist with below freezing temperatures, but "freezing fog" was not recorded.

More Freezing Fog

Freezing fog has been reported early this morning in Atlantic, Burlington, and Ocean Counties. As an actual observer of this fog while driving, visibility was down to zero in patches on some roadways I traveled on in this area. This fog was producing a light layer of moisture on road surfaces. With temperatures well below freezing, this fog is likely putting a thin coating of hazardous ice on roadways. Slow down and use extreme caution if you encounter this dense and freezing fog.
This fog could become more widespread overnight.

1/29/2011 Extended Forecast: Mid-Week Storm

The second clipper this afternoon is giving us some light snow, especially in Central New Jersey. The clipper will move offshore later tonight. The heavier bursts of snow may drop a coating of snow. Otherwise, the snow will dampen the ground and likely cause some black ice to form. Another round of some low clouds cannot be ruled out.

Morning clouds on Sunday will give way to mostly sunny skies. The mostly clear conditions will continue into Sunday Night. With light winds and relatively clear skies, Sunday Night could be a night where lows drop into the single digits. The snow-cover is fairly significant, so some of our coldest suburbs could try to drop down to zero degrees. An arctic reinforcement will be settling in for Monday, so upper twenties will likely be our maximum daytime high temperatures.

A warm front will begin to lift through our area on Tuesday, ahead of a very strong storm system that will cut up to our west. With the Arctic Air still in place, we should see snow develop. The snow may change to a wintry mix on Tuesday Night or on Wednesday Morning as warmer air erodes the colder air aloft. Then the low itself will give us very heavy precipitation on Wednesday. With high pressure to our north and snow on the ground, this may allow cold air damming to occur where basically cold air gets trapped at the surface. This will be especially true in Northwest and Central New Jersey. This means there is the possibility of freezing rain on Wednesday. With the heavy precipitation expected, we could see some significant ice accumulations. One must wonder if this will rival the ice storm of 1993. Obviously, this will be an evolving situation. Southeastern New Jersey would be mainly plain rain, should there be only a primary low sliding to our west. Atlantic City could flirt with 50 degrees while the inland is stuck in the thirties. There could be sleet in all areas at some point during the transitions. Keep in mind too if there is some heavy precipitation before temperatures rise above freezing, you could see some ice accretion gather quickly so you may get your ice storm technically before plain rain moves in.

Earlier model runs indicated the potential for a coastal storm to develop. This idea would mean the cold air would really get trapped and actually mean more snow than ice. The idea for now of a double-barrel low pressure system has been taken out of the equation, but not off the table. Every storm this season seems to have gone to the colder solution as the event draws near and then it actually does in fact play out that way. But maybe in this case, colder would be freezing rain instead of plain rain. After looking over the models today, I would be inclined to think rain for everyone except the high terrains once the heavier precipitation arrives. However, there are two good reasons, as mentioned above, to think ice may be an issue. If this storm produces a coastal low, it would likely be another double-digit snowfall.

If the area of plain rain makes good progress into the interior, the next concern would be flooding. I easily see a very significant rain event here for the areas that see all rain. With the significant snow just about everywhere and the snowfall since December, we do not have a dry ground. The ground is frozen as well and that will also add to the flooding potential. In this case, I would much rather want to have snow or ice if I lived along the major waterways, such as the Raritan and Delaware.

For all areas: colder air will move in as the system wraps up and it could change everything back to some sleet or wet snow before ending. This does not look anywhere near the event of this past week where we had strong energy behind the system.

The forecast for this storm has a great amount of uncertainty and any change could make a huge difference. Stay tuned!

Clipper #2 About to Arrive

Another round of snow showers with a burst of snow is anticipated this afternoon across Central and Southern New Jersey. Some areas will likely pick up an additional coating to an inch of snow. The models still indicate this system weakening as it enters New Jersey. This system does look a bit stronger than the clipper yesterday.

Hazardous Dense and Freezing Fog

Ideal conditions are in existence tonight across the Raritan and Delaware Valleys for fog formation. Temperatures are also below freezing in many areas. Some of the fog is dense in nature and as a result, we are getting some areas of freezing fog. Actual observation sites in Trenton and in Millville are reporting freezing fog. This kind of fog is very hazardous as it leaves a thin coating of ice on untreated surfaces. In Millville, the temperature dropped to 27 degrees. Elsewhere, temperatures are around the range of 30 to 32 degrees.

The coating of snow that also fell this afternoon and this evening has left roadways very moist. Use caution if traveling across the Garden State overnight into Saturday Morning. This is the type of situation which can lead to multiple-vehicle accidents.

1/28/2011 Extended Forecast: Another Clipper, Another Winter Storm

Snow showers will end across Central and Southern New Jersey as the evening rush is ending. Clouds will be hanging tight this evening, but they could break up overnight. Temperatures are around freezing and will drop below freezing as we lose daylight. This means black ice will form tonight as the snow has moistened the ground. Untreated surfaces will turn icy and hazardous. Be very careful.

Saturday Morning, we will have more clouds and black ice. Temperatures will once again rise into the middle thirties. Snow will arrive later in the day. The latest model guidance suggests an evening arrival from northwest to southeast. I think some of this will be arriving in the afternoon. The snow will move offshore early Sunday Morning. This is another coating to an inch of snow, with the possibility of over an inch in Sussex County if you heading to the mountains. Even if the snow does not produce a visible coating, it will moisten the roadways creating some black ice again Saturday Night. I will have more on this system in a late night update, so stay tuned.

A few clouds will linger on Sunday Morning, but expect the sun to break through the clouds by daylight across the area. Unlike last January 30, where my birthday was spent shoveling at night, this one looks to feature mostly clear skies at night. Monday looks to be mostly sunny.

Tuesday and Wednesday there will be several systems and factors leading to periods of accumulating snow. There will be more on this in the coming days on our site. There is the threat for a significant ice storm as well for portions of the region which see snow changing over to freezing rain. If some of the models are correct, we would be looking at power-outage producing ice in portions of the area or a heavy, wet snow. This time frame looks like there will plenty of moisture sources to work with as there is a strong gulf connection. At some point, there could be a double-barrel low situation which can make for a difficult forecast.

Clipper Entering New Jersey

The clipper I have been following all morning is about to enter New Jersey on schedule. In fact, some flurries and snow showers are already in New Jersey. This will begin what will be about a five hour period of occasional snow showers or periods of snow. The heaviest bursts of snow could drop the visibility to about one-mile. Temperatures are around or slightly above freezing. I suspect that in the heavier bursts, we could see temperatures drop back a degree or two as evaporative cooling takes place. The only place the radar is indicating some rain mixing in is in Cape May County.

We will see a dusting to an inch from this storm system. Again, an isolated spot could see more than one inch of snow. This snowfall is not much, but the previous events this year with this nuisance snowfall have caused major headaches. One inch or less of snow will not keep people off the roadways and that is how we get more accidents and jams during these types of events.

Clipper To Bring Snow Today

A clipper system that will impact our region this afternoon into this evening is now located from Washington D.C. northward through Harrisburg. This system will continue to slowly move eastward today and move offshore tonight.

The computer models continue to indicate 0.01” to 0.10” of available liquid with this system with the higher end of that number towards our south. The recent radar trends of the system appear to show some filling in of the precipitation, so I do not see this falling apart. In fact, this could get a bit more potent as a bit of energy goes into the system. As it approaches the ocean, it may try to pull in some additional moisture...but the dynamics appear weak and the time to do this is very limited. It is interesting how well this system survived crossing the Appalachian Mountains.

Some areas may just pick up a dusting, but I continue to expect amounts of a coating to an inch in some places. Some amounts in excess of an inch could occur in Southern New Jersey. Temperatures are below freezing in most places and they may rise to around freezing. Atlantic and Cape May Counties are the only places where temperatures are above freezing. But should the intensity be heavy enough, evaporative cooling may make up for the lack of below freezing air at the surface.

The system will impact the region stating around noon and linger to about 5:00 or 6:00 tonight. This system is unfortunately timed for the afternoon into the evening commute.

This snowfall is not much, but the previous events this year with this nuisance snowfall have caused major headaches. One inch or less of snow will not keep people off the roadways and that is how we get more accidents and jams during these types of events. Since these coatings may not be uniform, I will put out a graphic highlighting the potential for periods of snow.

Nuisance Snow to Affect Afternoon and Evening Rush Hour

Another round of snow is likely on Friday. A clipper system will slowly progress into our region on Friday Afternoon. The clipper will be pushing offshore during the evening commute. The snowfall amounts will generally be under an inch for most areas. The North American Model from 00z shows that this system gives us 0.1” to .10” of liquid to work with. This model does show a little bit more moisture over Delaware with 0.10” to 0.25” of liquid to work with and this area could scrape Cape May County. The current radar does show the southern part of this clipper to be a bit more organized, so I could see why the model indicates the heaviest stuff the further south one lives or travels. The problem is that temperatures will be above freezing around Cape May, so I am not ruling out that rain cannot mix in. But if it should be snow, there could be amounts in excess of one inch in Extreme Southern New Jersey.

This will affect the evening commute and make it sluggish in many parts of the region. Temperatures will be around freezing or a bit above, so the snow could melt at first. But if there is a burst…some roads could turn icy or get a light coating. We have had several instances so far this year where a light snowfall resulted in numerous delays and accidents since most people do not avoid travel during nuisance storms.

1/27/2011 Extended Forecast: 3 More Snow Chances

Temperatures across the region tonight are plunging below the freezing mark. As a result, the melting snow and ice will refreeze on untreated surfaces. Unfortunately, the sunshine we saw today was limited by the clouds and several trees have retained quite a bit of snow and ice. More problems tonight can be expected with falling trees, especially with holly trees and pine trees.

A clipper will move through our region on Friday. Is system is located near Cleveland and Detroit. This will drive down to our south. This system will produce areas of snow showers or even a period of light snow. Temperatures will be around or just above freezing during the daytime hours, but the ground is cold enough, especially with snow-cover for there to be an additional coating of snowfall across the region. Some spots could even squeeze out an inch of snow. This system is unfortunately timed for the afternoon into the evening commute. Another clipper will move in for Saturday and that also has the potential to bring some more light snowfall to the area with very light accumulations of a coating to an inch. We may not see all snow along the coast. In addition, southern areas could escape the snow on Saturday as the best dynamics from the second event seem to target Northern and Central New Jersey.

This snowfall is not much, but the previous events this year with this nuisance snowfall have caused major headaches. One inch or less of snow will not keep people off the roadways and that is how we get more accidents and jams during these types of events. Since these coatings may not be uniform, I will put out a graphic highlighting the potential for periods of snow.

Sunday and Monday will be dry and will give us a break (brief) from the wintry weather. The snow on the ground will not be going anywhere as we may see temperatures only slightly above freezing.

Another middle of the week storm appears at the end of my five day forecast. At this point and time, some snow could begin Tuesday Night. I think the bulk of this storm will be on Wednesday…possibly extending into Thursday. The details of this storm are unclear as it is too far out. The models seem to indicate some wintry mix or more snow. Over the course of the next few days, we will see this storm bounce all over the place on the models and even disappear at times. The overall pattern in the end looks favorable for a winter storm.

The Wednesday snowstorm was another significant snowfall for the record books. For New York City it was the most single snow in January. In Philadelphia, it was the third biggest single snow in January. The amount of thunderstorms with system was impressive and rare. Strong upward-vertical motion produced the thundersnow and thundersleet. A strong thunderstorm off the coastline of Monmouth and Ocean Counties produced hail along the coastline in those counties as reported by trained weather spotters. That storm also exhibited some weak upper-level rotation on the radar imagery. Thunderstorms in the summer can drop one to two inches of rain, or more, in a period of time. Some were surprised by the impressive snowfall rates exceeding three inches per hour. It is the same concept in the winter, producing heavy precipitation amounts in a short period of time. So even with the ice and rain in the early evening hours, many quickly accumulated substantial snowfall accumulations. Snowfall ranged from 9 to 20 inches across the state with the highest amounts in Western New Jersey into Northern and Central New Jersey. The coastal areas saw less, particularly the southeast. This is because the center of the energy pivoted across Delaware and Cape May allowing for a dry slot to build in after temperatures cooled here.

Thousands Still Out of Power

Power outages this morning continue across Central and Southern New Jersey. The trees are loaded with the heavy, wet snow. The weight of the snow and ice is really taking a huge toll on the trees and wires. We have a few things going on here as explained by the utility companies. The earlier rain helped form a coating of ice around the lines. This has allowed this wet snow to stick easier to the wires. Therefore the weight has taken them down without a falling branch or tree. Second, the snow and ice surrounding the wires can sometimes interrupt the flow of electricity and cause shorts. Finally, the trees and tree branches are coming down with the weight. I would also believe that a car could slam into a pole and that could also cause an outage.

Snowfall totals were impressive. 10-15 inches (as mapped out here yesterday morning) seemed to be common in many places...with some areas exceeding that. At the shore...it was less...but still I don't think snow lovers in Atlantic City this season have been dissapointed! I will have full details later this morning.

Many schools are closed this morning with a handful of delays. Even many colleges are closed today.

Snow To End

The snow will end soon across New Jersey, likely within the next two or three hours.

The power outages continues to increase with several thousand now without power. The weight of the snow and ice is really taking a huge toll on the trees and wires. We have a few things going on here as explained by the utility companies. The earlier rain helped form a coating of ice around the lines. This has allowed this wet snow to stick easier to the wires. Therefore the weight has taken them down without a falling branch or tree. Second, the snow and ice surrounding the wires can sometimes interrupt the flow of electricity and cause shorts. Finally, the trees and tree branches are coming down with the weight. I would also believe that a car could slam into a pole and that could also cause an outage. Anyhow, this snow will not be going anywhere until a few hours after sunrise, so even when the snow stops….more things could give way. The snow, as television reports have reported on, has taken these wires and has buried them. This can make it challenging for snow plow operators.

The upward-vertical motion continues to produce thunderstorms. This has now shifted a bit towards Monmouth County and New York City. Over 150 lightning strikes have been reported with this system which is absolutely impressive. These thunderstorms have produced snowfall rates of up to four inches per hour. The snowfall rates of this intensity have made it almost impossible to maintain a passable roadway in many areas. Some cloud to ground strikes were reported which even more of a rare phenomenon.

We are going to hopefully see an end to the snowfall within the next few hours. It is becoming less and less persistent in Eastern Pennsylvania and this drying trend should extend into New Jersey in the next few hours. However, I am not going to rule out a persistent band trying to linger to 4:00 a.m. in the morning, especially in Burlington, Ocean, Middlesex, and Monmouth Counties.

Snowy and Windy...

Strong-upward vertical motion continues to produce thunderstorms across our region.

First we will hit the power outages. The latest outage maps are beginning to show a noticeable increase in power outages across New Jersey. This will become more and more of an issue as the wet snow piles up. The wet snow, ice, and sleet on the trees makes for the perfect combination. Our area has pine trees which love to come down in these conditions. Wires may become buried in the snowfall, so please be careful. I already saw some video of this tonight on our local stations.

Snowfall rates continue to be ranging from one to four inches per hour. Less down towards Cape May. We are starting to see the back-edge of this storm, but this is still several hours away from Philadelphia.

Windy conditions also continue. Winds continue to be sustained between 15 and 25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH. This is causing near-blizzard conditions.

Considerable blowing and drifting snow will be likely on Thursday.

Heavy Snow Over Us Now

Snow Line Pushing Into Eastern NJ

For all the patient souls waiting for the snow, the line is almost to the coastline. There still will be some sleet and freezing rain in the eastern counties, but the line is pushing towards the coast. The freezing rain and sleet has made for extremely dangerous and treacherous travel. Now with the wet snow and colder air moving down to the surface, the ice and water will solidify well.

The snowfall rates of one to three inches will be very common. Some isolated four inch per hour pockets are likely. Thunderstorms have been reported tonight with rare thundersnow and thundersleet. What was even more interesting is that there was hail reported in eastern Ocean and Monmouth Counties from a strong thunderstorm… that even appeared to have some upper level rotation over water.

Snow Line Continues Progress Eastward

Rapid Changeover Next Two Hours...Thunderstorms...Strong Winds

DO NOT DRIVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

The snow line will rapidly move to the coastline. In addition, the thunderstorms will pull down colder air helping to change any potential rain to sleet and quickly to snow. The thunderstorms could contain quite a bit of unusual lightning for this time of the year, let alone with snow. Snowfall rates of one to four inches per hour likely! Roads will become impassible.

Strong winds being reported will only get stronger as the storm intensifies. While there are no blizzard warnings, I believe we may be very close or hit the criteria at least somewhere.

The temperatures are now starting to drop and the expected flash freeze is now in progress of developing.

Blizzard Tonight?

I am watching the wind speeds at this hour as they continue to get stronger. This wind I think will get even stronger this evening as rapid deepening continues to occur as the low moves up from the Carolinas and gets energized by a strong piece of energy moving from the southwest. Winds are already sustained 15 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH. If these winds increase further, they could approach limits that would take down a weak tree and some branches. What I am more concerned about with the wind is the potential for blizzard conditions this evening as the strongest winds could coincide with the heavy snowfall rates.

The snow this morning as transitioned to a light mix of precipitation. If the precipitation is light, it is in the form of drizzle. This is the lull before a quick intensification of the system this evening into early Thursday Morning. Temperatures are just around or above freezing right now. Once the precipitation becomes heavy again, we lose daylight, and we see the precipitation change to snow …flash freezing will occur.

The water on the trees, surfaces, and wires will turn to ice. This will add some weight to the trees and wires. Then as we see wet snow begin to fall, this will stick very easily to the ice. The worst still looks to be from 7:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m. The second piece of energy looks quite strong and potent at this hour. One must wonder what awaits with this joins forces.

The snowfall map from this morning remains unchanged. 10 to 16 inches total with less in the far Northwest and the far Southeast looks good at this time. This includes the snow from this morning which averaged 1.5 to 5 inches. Thunderstorms are possible with sleet and snow.

Significant Upgrade in My Snowfall Forecast

I am still expecting the sleet and perhaps some rain or freezing rain. But as soon as it is time for the evening commute...snow will takeover. The new NAM blasts the Garden State with very heavy snow and near-blizzard conditions.

I am going to increase my totals. It appears even Cape May could get several inches after holding out the longest with mixing.

This snow map also includes the messy one to four inches that occured this morning.

Unexpected Snow Causes Morning Commute Nightmare

Last night, Kathy Orr from CBS 3 and I were talking about the possibilities of what may happen with this winter storm. She was concerned that this storm would not behave as the models projected and she could not be more correct. Heavy snow developed this morning and has left an accumulation everywhere, even in Southern New Jersey. A wintry mix is lifting up slowly through Southeastern New Jersey and is trying to push up to Philadelphia. The snow is also a wet snow which is causing accumulations on trees and power lines. At the very moment, the precipitation could shut off before that snow line makes as it that far north.

Roadways are totally snow covered in many spots around Central and Southern New Jersey. Along the mixing line, there is some evidence of icing and sleet accretion. The morning commute is a mess as this is more than a nuisance event. This is what we would call an over performing system because of the much more intense precipitation areas than what the models and forecasts called for.

Areas that remain snow could see several inches this morning before a lull when part two starts. Some areas that may eventually switch to a wintry mix still will see several inches. Areas that see a wintry mix still may see quite a bit of sleet and freezing rain. Rain and some sleet will fall in Southeastern New Jersey and along the coastline.

Round two will be a subject for later this morning.

Morning Light Mix, Drizzle/Light Rain Before Part 2

Temperatures this evening fell back into the upper twenties and lower thirties across the region. As precipitation approaches, some sleet will develop...even with some brief wet snow. The sleet could be mixed with rain. The rain may freeze on surfaces causing a very light, but hazardous coating of ice. Temperatures will rise as the column moistens, but it will only be in Southeastern New Jersey where they will rise above freezing before the rain begins. Eventually, the wintry mix will change to light rain or drizzle somewhere between 9:00 a.m. and Noon.

The morning commute will be sloppy. However, this is a nuisance compared to what will likely transpire for the evening commute into the night. The liquid to work with will generally be under 0.25” of an inch. Snow and sleet without a change to any rain would occur further north and west.

Late Night Model Runs on Winter Storm

If I had to make any change tonight, it would be to shift the heaviest snow accumulation to the east. However, the initialization reveals that the storm track may actually be slightly west of both 00z Guidance low pressure positions. Therefore, I will not make any changes until tomorrow morning if necessary.

Temperatures tonight have dropped below freezing in many areas. Therefore, any light precipitation, should it develop, will be sleet or freezing rain until about 10 or 11 in the morning. After that, we may see any freezing rain or drizzle changeover to plain rain in Central and Southern New Jersey.

Again, the snow line begins to move east around or just after rush hour....doing so quickly...and that is when the precipitation will become heavy.

1/25/2011 Extended Forecast: Snow Map Forecast

A major winter storm is about to impact New Jersey on Wednesday. A winter storm watch remains in effect for the entire state with the exception of Coastal Atlantic and Cape May County.

At this point, it looks like initially we will have enough mild air in place for sleet to begin this storm in many places in the interior of Central and Southern New Jersey. This sleet may mix with rain at times, especially the closer one lives to the coastline. A changeover to rain is possible in Southeastern New Jersey. In Central and Western New Jersey, the question continues to be raised about the potential of freezing rain if in fact the rain mixes with sleet. Overall, there is a possibility of a coating of ice in some areas and this is going to be difficult to pinpoint down. The liquid amounts we have to work with the initial part of the storm from dawn to dusk looks to be around or below 0.25”. I could even see a lull in the precipitation happening or just some drizzle during this period. This may lead to the perception that this storm is a bust. This leaves me with the concerns that many will not postpone their travel plans in the evening.

The interesting period begins during the evening rush hour as the coastal storm intensifies rapidly as a piece of energy approaches from Maryland. The intensification will wrap around colder air into the storm changing any mixture or rain over to snow. This transition will happen very suddenly from west to east. The “540 Line” pushes well off the coast by the early evening hours. This is also when we have potentially more than 0.75” of liquid to work with in some areas. This means a good thumping of accumulation snow can be expected across the entire state with the least amounts around the Cape May area where the warmer air holds the longest. Any areas that see rain during the day will likely experience a rapid drop in temperature once the snowfall begins. This would likely be a flash freeze in these areas.

There is going to be some banding with this system. The North American Model is very good at picking up such convective features. On the future radar above from the 18z run, you can clearly see a band developing right over New Jersey during the height of the storm. This band will contain snowfall rates of two to four inches per hour. This band will occur, but on the modeling it will likely shift run to run. There could be some rare thunderstorms with snow in the band as well.

As the low rapidly deepens, the winds will become stronger across the area. This may coincide with the heavy snow raising the possibility of at least near-blizzard conditions. The winds would be strongest along the coastline. Wind gusts of at least 40 MPH could transpire across the region, particularly coastal regions.

Any sleet or icing during the day or a flash freeze of water on trees will coat the trees with ice. This will already give some extra weight. The snow is expected to be a wet snow the further and further away you are from the Delaware River. This suggests the potential for some downed trees and wires and power outages. If there is icing on the trees, it is like applying glue to poster board and then sprinkling glitter on it. Even a three to six inch snowstorm, if it is wet snow, can bring wires and trees down.

Snowfall totals across the region are on the accumulating snowfall map. I will tell you that for the moment I am putting a cap on the amounts. There are some models still showing the potential for 12 to 16 inches of snow for portions of the region. I am using a lower snow ratio because of the possibility of snowflakes with more moisture content and the air temperature could take an hour to get primed for accumulation…dependent on that flash freeze. Be prepared for an additional increase in snowfall should models continue to indicate more than 1.00” of available liquid.

Winter Storm Watch Expanded

Most of NJ on GFS: 6 to 12 inches of snow.
Most of NJ on NAM: 12 to 16 inches of snow.

Either way, both American Models are forecasting a significant snowfall across the area. This is the reason the winter storm watch has been expanded.

Any mix switches to snow around the evening rush hour.

Heaviest snowfall: 8:00 p.m. Wednesday to 1:00 a.m. Thursday

12z North American Model....MUCH Colder

**Note the images start from the bottom up**



The 12z North American Model that has just come in this morning shows a much colder storm for New Jersey. The "540 Line" does not even lift through all of Southern New Jersey. This means that the chance of liquid precipitation, according to this run, is decreasing. Even if there was some liquid or mixed precipitation, the NAM shows only about 0.25" of liquid during this time frame.

It also shows a whopper of a snowstorm about 36 hours from now. The model indicates the potential for 12 to 16 inches of snow in parts of New Jersey. I caution this is just one model run and this is not the forecast. We must wait for the other runs to come in later this morning and this afternoon.

Watching the Winter Storm

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for Somerset and Hunterdon Counties in Central New Jersey. Northwestern New Jersey has also been placed in the watch area. This is the area which will likely not see any plain rain during the milder part of the storm….allowing frozen precipitation to occur most of the day. This area will also be expected to pick up additional snowfall as colder air moves in on the backside of this Nor’easter. Therefore, with an all frozen event, confidence is high in this area that winter storm criterion will be met.

Elsewhere, no winter products have been issued at this moment. The National Weather Service is holding off at the moment on the rest of the region. They will likely make a decision after the late morning guidance is received and analyzed. At this moment, I think some counties will definitely be added to the watch area if the trends continue.

A snow map will be posted late this afternoon. The 12z Guidance is going to play a crucial role in how we develop a snowfall forecast map.

Start and Middle of Storm in Question....Ending Becomes Clear

Another significant winter storm appears to be on the horizon. The storm is bizarre and complicated.

Tonight, confidence is growing for an accumulating snow in New Jersey as the storm departs. This could be a quick thumping of snow that could quickly deteriorate weather conditions. As colder air pushes in and snow begins to fall, areas that see rain will likely experience a flash freeze. The models are indicating 0.50” to 1.00” of available liquid after the “540 Line” pushes well off the coastline. This amount of liquid typically means that anywhere from 6 to 12 inches of snow would be possible across the region. Both the NAM and GFS from 00z agree on this. We are now in a good range for model accuracy.

What we have to work on in the next twelve hours is determining what precipitation types will be occurring at the beginning and middle parts of the storm. The latest high resolution model shows that much of the interior of Central and Southern New Jersey will be seeing sleet or some sort of rain and sleet mixture. Temperatures may be above freezing in most areas for there to be freezing rain, but it cannot be ruled out and this is something that will have to be watched. For Southeastern New Jersey, it appears to be mainly rain during the start and end, but even here there could be some sleet. I could see the opportunity for some prolonged icing in portions of Central New Jersey.

It also seems to be prudent to indicate that there is the possibility of strong wind gusts as the storm intensifies. This could potentially coincide with the heavy snowfall. The snow appears to be wet in nature, so power outages could become an issue in portions of the state. Of course any rain water would freeze on trees, especially pine trees, should there be a drop in temperature. This would allow the snow to stick like it was glued to the trees. Any icing of 0.25"+ would also lead to power outages.

1/24/2011 Extended Forecast

The frigid air across New Jersey will begin to moderate overnight as temperatures rise with the passage of a weak warm front. Some snow showers can be seen around Pittsburgh, but the eastern extent of the precipitation does not make it through Central Pennsylvania. The front will begin to moisten the columns and will throw clouds our way. The models indicate the warm air advection precipitation will miss our region. It will also take several hours to moisten the atmosphere with the arctic air in place, so any echoes on the radar may not actually be precipitation. I will allow for a few flurries or a snow shower. Some peaks of sun could break through the clouds at times on Tuesday. The high temperature will probably be recorded late on Tuesday as temperatures will rise throughout the day.

By the way, parts of Central New Jersey once again went down well into the negative digits….especially in Morris and Somerset Counties into Northwestern New Jersey.
It looks as though a better idea of how this storm will affect us is materializing on Wednesday. This can be expected 48 hours in advance of the storm. There is still some disagreement amongst the computer models. However, I will go with the more consistent modeling. It appears that the region will see precipitation break out on Wednesday Morning from south to north. The most available liquid amounts will be in New Jersey.

Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this storm being off the New Jersey and Delaware coastline. This means that Central and Southern New Jersey will be on the “colder” side of the storm. Being on the colder side of the storm implies that the counterclockwise flow around low pressure cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere prevents an east or southeast wind. Such a wind would take above freezing ocean water temperature affected air out in the Atlantic and bring it over New Jersey. However, the inland air will not be supportive of an all snow event for the entire area as it is just marginally cold. This introduces mixed precipitation chances which can make for an extremely challenging forecast.

At this hour, I think some cold air will be hanging around, particularly at lower levels. Therefore, the precipitation could start as some sleet or freezing rain along the Delaware River and then change to rain, potentially mixed with sleet. The colder solutions prolong the sleet and ice potential in these areas which could be overdone. This is too difficult to determine for sure at this point and a prolonged icing event in portions of this area cannot be ruled out, but the chance is very low at this moment.

Along the coastal counties, expect rain perhaps briefly mixed with sleet.

Then as the storm begins to intensify, expect everywhere to changeover to snow. The changeover will happen last in Atlantic, Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May Counties. Some of the computer models show quite a bit of liquid available as the colder air enters our area, especially in New Jersey and Delaware, as the “540 Line” swings out over the ocean. Therefore a fairly decent amount of snow may fall in a three to six hour window of time at the end of the storm. This also raises the possibility of a flash freeze, which could set to happen around the evening commute and later further to the east. I think this will occur around 54 hours from this posting.