The cluster being eyed has really weakened...but within the next two hours it may develop or another line segment may form along the outflow boundary. The cluster weakened before entering the instablity axis the derecho composite illustrates clearly with 2-4 values. Tornado composite values have increased to 0.50-1.00 now with CAPE of 1,500 j/kg. CIN isn't good for development though...and I would like a closer forcing mechanism. We lose sunlight too in about 3 hours.
A cluster of thunderstorms has developed ahead of a cold front this afternoon near State College, Pennsylvania. This cluster is moving eastward and will move into New Jersey, should it survive, this evening and tonight.
The cluster of thunderstorms is likely going to become more organized as it moves eastward, until at least nightfall. Temperatures have soared into the middle eighties, as anticipated, with the exception of the immediate coastline. The record warmth has cause CAPE values to approach 1,000 j/kg and therefore there is sufficient instability to feed on for at least the first half of tonight before some of it could dissipate.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but an isolated tornado threat is not out of the question, especially the closer to Pennsylvania. The tornado composite does suggest the opportunity for a tornado. I expect the cluster to also expand in size as it approaches more unstable air.
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