Wild First Half of the Week

A disturbance moving in for the remainder of today will cause some showers, especially in Southern New Jersey. Based on the late morning soundings and observations of cloud growth, some isolated thunderstorms are not out of the realm of possibility. With a low freezing level today, some hail would occur if there is any thunderstorm. With daytime heating coinciding with the disturbance, numerous clouds will result in mostly cloudy skies.
I am still confident that Sunday will be the sunniest day of the next three, especially in the morning hours. By Sunday Evening, clouds will be developing in response to an approaching warm front.

I am still expecting a warm front to produce rain on Monday and possibly some thunderstorms. If the warm front and associated clouds clear the region by the afternoon hours, temperatures could soar once the sunshine comes out.

The main change from my forecast yesterday is the timing of the cold front is about twelve to fifteen hours earlier on the latest guidance, a trend that began yesterday. A potent low pressure that will intensify in Canada will push a strong cold front into the warm sector on Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. The model guidance indicates thunderstorms and heavy showers preceding the front. With high shear and strong winds aloft, some severe thunderstorms are a certainty. A more widespread severe weather outbreak in our region will hopefully be precluded by the nighttime arrival with waning instability at night. On Monday, in areas where the sunshine breaks out, the tightening gradient and decent mixing could allow for wind gusts at the surface to be pretty robust. On Tuesday, behind the front, pressure falls and a tight gradient on the back-side of the front could allow for another dose of strong wind gusts. The timing change also means that Tuesday will be cooler now and that Monday will be the warmest day of the period. This makes temperatures even trickier as they will be dependent on the clearance speed of the warm front, which may get hung up in Northern New Jersey.