Tonight and especially Saturday Morning will be wet. Rain develops this evening from west to east. The rain will become heavy at times on Saturday Morning and move out of the region slowly on Saturday Afternoon. There should be some thunderstorms as well. 1 to 2 inches of rain seems to be reasonable at this point. Renewed flooding across the swollen rivers, creeks, and streams is possible given how well above normal they are running.
Much of North and Central New Jersey needs 1 to 2 inches of rain in six hours to begin to cause flash flooding. Southwestern New Jersey into Monmouth County needs about 2 to 3 inches to flooding with the remainder of the region needing amounts in excess of 3 inches for problems to begin. Much of this rain will come in 10-14 hours and this is worth watching...especially with thunderstorms are possiblilty as the North American Model from 12z suggests. While this event will be not nearly as intense as last weekend...things are just saturated out there from past few soakers.
To me, on the map, while the instability is not nearly as strong as the day we had the slight risk, enough it will be present that there could be a few strong to severe thunderstorms. As of early this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a "see text" risk for severe thunderstorms. I would say the chances are greater than the other day despite their lower probabilities at the moment.
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