Coastal Storm...But Stronger and More Impactful to Our North and East

Headlines:

Not expecting flooding except street flooding or urban and small stream flooding at most...

Winds will be strongest after the storm, but could be gusty for a time along the coast...

Snow in the NW part of the state with a moderate event at best maybe making this a "snowstorm" for them; minor elsewhere & not a big deal...not the "snowstorm" some were hinting at for the majority of the Garden State...

Periods of rain...heavy at times...but not the 2 to 4 inch amounts I heard some were going with earlier in the week....

Strong winds after the system departs and bombs out closer to New England...

The biggest development at this hour is the North American Model is now beginning to come around to the idea of a coastal storm, supporting the model partners. While the NAM still shows the most aggressive development of the low north and east of our region, we still have a measurable one-half inch to three-quarters of an inch of liquid to work with. The GFS from 00z has also backed off quite a bit of the precipitation amounts with the inch or greater amounts confined to the coast where there is sandy soil.

With this said, it is now time to rely on the European Model and Global Forecast System model since these models have been more consistent with the idea of a coastal storm of some sort, although far less consistent with the track of the low pressure center. At this point, the overall idea doesn’t change with the precipitation type. Right now the GFS model from 00z is continuing to show rain developing along with gusty winds across much of the coastal plan in New Jersey which is the majority of the site’s serving area. The rain…heavy at times…at the very end of the event may possibly mix with wet snow, if not briefly end as a burst of all wet snow. If there in fact is a change to wet snow as colder air rushes in, the best chance of this occurring is north of Interstate 195. The worst case scenario may result in a quick slushy coating to at most a few inches in Central New Jersey, primarily on grassy surfaces. The best opportunity for colder air to make it this far south would be when the low pulls away. The wildcard would be if the precipitation is so heavy that colder air rushing in initially aloft is pulled down to the ground.

Localized street flooding, urban flooding, and small stream flooding is the greatest threat if the current expected rainfall amounts of 0.75” to 1.50” are realized. Should there be 2.00” to 3.00” of rain; some flooding may begin along our larger waterways but the model runs have backed off quite a bit.

Assuming that the stronger solutions are correct on the modeling, wind gusts could pass 45 MPH in the Eastern New Jersey counties. Wind gusts could pass 50 MPH along our coastal communities. The real robust solutions would result in storm force winds along the coastal communities, but these solutions seem to be thinning in the pile rapidly with a less intense low at our latitude. The east-northeast flow will impact our coastal areas with spotty tidal flooding. Pockets of minor severity flooding are expected.

As the storm pulls away, the low is expected to intensify further off the coastline of New England. The result could be a very stuff northwest wind developing. Wind gusts across the entire region may exceed 50 MPH behind the storm. Drier air will filter in, but some lingering instability and backlash could produce some snow flurries and snow showers.

If the long range modeling is correct for Monday and Tuesday, FEMA might not be leaving New Jersey anytime soon for those along waterways.