Spring Season Mixture, For Others Just Damp

Passaic and Sussex Counties have been placed under a winter storm warning. Bergen, Hunterdon, Somerset, Warren, and Morris Counties have been placed under winter weather advisories.

Precipitation will likely develop by daybreak into the mid-morning hours. Initially, it may be light enough for it to just be some light drizzle or misting. I am still expecting a burst of heavier precipitation as the first low pressure system rides along a stalled frontal boundary to our south. The heavier burst of precipitation could drag colder air down through the column. The result will be rain mixing with wet snow and sleet at times.

In Northern and Central New Jersey, there is the potential for enough cold air to be pulled near the surface for a total changeover to wet snow. The colder North American Model continues to suggest that it will remain wet snow, possibly mixed with sleet once this happens north of Interstate 195. Other high-resolution modeling and the Global Forecast System modeling shows warmer air eventually taking back over. My thinking is that even if the precipitation type remains wet snow, air temperatures at ground-level will rise a few degrees above freezing during the daytime hours and the strong late March solar radiation will go to work preventing large amounts of accumulation. I think in most of North and Central New Jersey, an inch or two of slush could occur with the worst case scenario in the morning hours. Higher elevations and Northwestern New Jersey could see amounts as high as four to six inches during the morning and afternoon. Additional snow accumulation is possible at night into Thursday Morning should there be a second piece of energy which energizes the original low. Meanwhile, in South Jersey, this is mainly rain for the morning and afternoon with a bit of mixture and if the air is warm enough…even portions of Central New Jersey could end up being mainly rain.

A second piece of energy will develop Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning. This will reenergize the initial low offshore. The result will be colder air coming back into the areas that switched from snow to rain during the midday hours. Even southern areas may eventually end as some wet snow and sleet. The latest 18z NAM model has backed off on the extent of backend snow and colder air and brings the possibility of a heavy burst of snow as the storm ends down into Central New Jersey and possibly the northern portions of Southern New Jersey. Meanwhile, none of the other models really show robust development with the second piece of energy. Anyone living north of the Atlantic City Expressway should keep an eye on the developments tomorrow morning for the second piece of energy as the NAM has had fairly good credibility this winter.

Colder air aloft on the remainder of Thursday could cause several pockets of snow showers and flurries and bubble up quite a bit of clouds after a few peaks of sunshine behind the morning precipitation. It may also be blustery.

More storminess, potentially frozen precipitation, is possible over the weekend. Temperatures will be running well below the average high of around 53-54 degrees for late March.