The heaviest rain with this system is clearly going to be Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning with this storm. Rain may fall before that time frame, but only one-quarter of an inch or less. Two to three inches of rain will likely fall from Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning. Some areas will see localized amounts of four to six inches. Historic flooding is quite possible in Northern New Jersey where there is still ongoing flooding around the Passaic River Basin. The water levels will drop some, but perhaps not below flood stage prior to this event. Just imagine the rises in this area this time around as last time around we at least started below flood stage. Elsewhere, even if there is not ongoing flooding, should three inches fall, significant flooding is expected if the rainfall predictions are realized. Some of the flooding could be of moderate to major severity. At this stage of the game, anyone living in an area that has flooded in the past few decades should prepare for flooding this go around. Move furniture to higher ground and have an evacuation plan in place. During the heavy rain, flooding in most areas will occur in low spots, around ditches, streets with areas of poor drainage, and at smaller creeks and streams. Then all that water on Friday will head towards the major creeks and major rivers. The rises here will be perhaps slow as it will take time for the runoff to make its way there, although if four inches of rain falls, a much faster rise can be expected, perhaps a flashier flood. The ground is so saturated that this rain cannot be absorbed. Trees are also not sucking in the water since there are no canopies to support. Numerous road closures are expected Thursday Night and Friday Morning.
Vigorous negatively tilted trough and the position of the double-barrel low pressure areas will result in strong, gusty winds from the east-southeast across New Jersey. A low center may exist across the Great Lakes with another forming along the Middle Atlantic. This will already cause a pressure gradient. Then I see an area of high pressure setting up shop northeast of Maine which will tighten it even more. High pressure will also build in from the south as the system slowly trends to the north and east of New York City. With a saturated ground, strong to high winds will have the potential to cause a lot of problems. We were able to get wind gusts to 56 MPH in New York City with the previous storm and frequent gusts of around or above 40 MPH in New Jersey. This storm could have higher and more widespread gusts if the solutions proposed come to fruition. I think we will see so much rain that many of the weakened trees even without the wind could fall with the loosened soil. Of course flood waters can also be powerful enough to take down trees.
Some embedded thunderstorms will be associated with the low as it rides up the cold front. The convection will be mainly low-topped. With such a well-organized rain shield, detecting microbursts and weak tornadoes once again become difficult. The severe weather threat will be very limited, but not impossible. Any squall-lines that form to our south-southwest will have to be watched to see if they move into our region.
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