Wednesday and Thursday is looking potentially very problematic. A late March winter storm could very well be approaching the region. This is a low confidence forecast.
The first in a series of waves moving along a stalled cold front to our south on Wednesday Morning should cause enhancement of the precipitation along and to the north of the boundary. The 00z NAM model shows a real struggle to fight off the colder air despite stronger radiation from the increased sunlight this time of the year. The result could be a period of wet snow and sleet as far south as northern sections of Southern New Jersey. The wet snow may hold for several hours if there is heavy precipitation as colder air aloft could be dragged down the entire column. This system is looking much colder than the event on Monday on this model, which brought one to five inches of snow to Northwestern New Jersey. Several inches of wet snow and sleet may fall at the onset of the event with even winter storm accumulations in Northern and North-Central New Jersey according to the NAM. After the accumulations seen with a warmer looking type of event, this tells me it can snow and accumulate despite Friday’s warmth. The roadways will be above freezing for the most part, so it will be the grass that sees the highest totals. Meanwhile, the GFS shows rain in much of the region, with snow and sleet in Northern New Jersey. To me, the GFS is too warm. More on this down further.
The NAM model does not show the “540 Line” budging much throughout the day in Central and Northern New Jersey. If the colder air holds, that wet snow and sleet may never have a chance at changing completely over to liquid rain in this area. It may rise above freezing at the surface which has the power to prevent accumulations at least. The high resolution modeling does want to show at least liquid making it to the Interstate 195 corridor. Where snow cover develops, there may even be the potential for some brief freezing rain in the Northwest New Jersey counties.
The wave of low pressure may reenergize according to the NAM Wednesday Night into Thursday or even a secondary, stronger low may develop. This has the potential to drag down even colder air into the system as well as giving it additional energy to intensify the precipitation rates. The result could be to drop the temperatures several degrees and change any liquid or mixture to wet snow. Accumulating snow may develop even in Southern New Jersey with several inches not out of the question according to the North American Model. The GFS doesn’t have this sort of intensification of the low and therefore just doesn’t give us much measurable precipitation at all, even if it was warm enough for rain.
The Global Forecast System model has been warmer throughout the course of the last few days with regards to this event and has also featured less measurable precipitation amounts. But the North American Model has been far more accurate this winter and nailed the morning Northwestern New Jersey snow amounts.
More wet snow and rain is quite possible late in the weekend. The GFS is a long range model; and unfortunately the NAM just doesn’t go out this far. However, even the GFS is suggesting frozen precipitation with this event perhaps being more dominant than liquid.
Search the February archives for the write up on the winter. Look for a phrase that mentions how we could end up in a pattern where it reaches 70 degrees one day and then 48 hours later it is snowing. I think this prediction is ending up dead on.
No comments:
Post a Comment