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This is still looking like a “not a big deal” type of weather event this evening. Rain overnight will intensify as the coastal storm beings to take shape off the Carolina Coastline and move northeast. The best dynamics are offshore and will shift up to New England where they should take a pounding.

So, rain, heavy at times overnight into early Friday Morning. The rain may change to wet snow showers north of the Atlantic City Expressway and most likely north of Interstate 195 during the morning hours. The worst case scenario may result in a quick slushy coating to a few inches in Central New Jersey, primarily on grassy surfaces. The best opportunity for colder air to make it this far south would be when the low pulls away. Otherwise, the models have even lowered the liquid to work with today even more, so now rainfall amounts of around three-quarters to one-inch can be expected.

Outside of the main website viewing area, some accumulating snow will occur in Northwestern New Jersey after a change from rain. AT BEST this is a moderate snow event for them, with up to six inches possible there. The late afternoon runs gave some renewed hope to allow for 5 or 6 inches to remain in the forecast up there…earlier runs this morning said even 4 inches was optimistic.

There still could be a period of gusty winds along our eastern counties. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph would be possible, especially along our coastal communities. The east-northeast flow will impact our coastal areas with spotty tidal flooding of minor severity.
As the storm pulls away, the low is expected to intensify further off the coastline of New England. The result could be a very stuff northwest wind developing. Wind gusts across the entire region may exceed 50 MPH behind the storm. Drier air will filter in, but some lingering instability and backlash could produce some snow flurries and snow showers.

Snow showers or rain showers with a clipper is possible on Saturday.

Heavy rain on Monday is possible with a warm front and wave of low pressure.

Thunderstorms, possibly severe, is possible on Tuesday on Wednesday with a mild surge of air.