Today and Tuesday look tranquil at this point. Highs will be in the upper forties and lower fifties. Winds will be relatively light.
Another low pressure area will impact our region on Wednesday. There is now high confidence that this system will deliver another measurable rainfall to New Jersey. The model guidance over the past three cycles has been consistent with a widespread 0.50” to 0.75” of rainfall. Under normal circumstances, we would be able to handle this rain. I think South Jersey will be squeaking by. However, with waterways in Northern New Jersey not receding below flood stage until Tuesday, this rain could once again cause waterways to rise above capacity, particularly the Passaic River Basin. It would take as little as 0.25” to renew flooding in this area. Meanwhile, the low pressure area doesn’t appear to be real strong or particularly organized and therefore it appears that the winds will not be a factor this time. There appears to be a bit of a convective look to the precipitation on the models, but the thunderstorm chances will be limited by the lack of sunshine.
A significant warm spell will likely develop Thursday and especially on Friday. Highs could approach 70 degrees in Central and Southern New Jersey if things work out perfectly. Some of the more aggressive modeling even wants to show the middle seventies for maximum temperatures at the surface. For now, 70 degrees seems reasonable this far out. A cold front on Friday Evening may bring showers and thunderstorms, especially if we see highs around 70 degrees.
No comments:
Post a Comment