As a warm front lifts northward into Saturday, there will be extensive cloudiness. Increasing moisture at the lower levels and light winds initially may allow for some low clouds and even some drizzle to develop across portions of New Jersey on Saturday. Some breaks in the clouds are possible at times and with an increasing southerly flow, some areas will definitely near 60 degrees. But at times on Saturday it may look stormy as a scattered rain shower or even a thunderstorm could develop in response to the warm air advection. When the sun does come out it could get quite blustery, if not windy as mixing may occur pretty well. Surface wind gusts of 35 or 40 MPH wouldn’t be impossible with the best, maximum mixing.
On Sunday, the cold front will move towards the region. The frontal timing is believed to be somewhat slower now and all along it looked as though the steadiest rain would not arrive until the later hours anyhow. What is somewhat different today is that Global Forecast System model is developing the axis of heavy rain right over New Jersey unlike yesterday when it indicated the axis would be over Central Pennsylvania. This shift is significant because it would mean that two to three inches of rain at a minimum could fall over a twelve hour period. Unlike the previous solution, this outcome would definitely result in widespread minor flooding with possible moderate severity flooding. Poor drainage flooding would be impossible to avoid at this point with the models being wetter for our region. Some embedded thunderstorms remain a possibility which could locally enhance rain amounts.
The GFS would also have the surface low forming along the cold front right over New Jersey which leads one to believe that strong winds may develop to at least wind advisory criteria. With the ground pretty wet from previous rain and snow in February and a possible soaking with this system, it is critical to remind folks that strong winds and a wet ground can lead to whole trees uprooting and falling. The storm track would have some similarities to the March 2010 wind and rain event. That event was certainly extremely rare and thought to be unrepeatable in the near future since it was one of those one in one hundred year type storms. However, blizzards are usually spaced out every five to ten years around here and we have had several consecutive ones as of late. We came off the snowiest season with a major storm and it would only seem fit during a pattern change. So with this season ranking up there for a hefty dose of snowfall, perhaps we may have another freakish wind and rain storm? I will take a closer look at the wind potential tomorrow with the forecast. I would like to see a tighter gradient develop before I say strong wind gusts are a definite.
Keep in mind that another very heavy rain event is possible on Thursday of next week.
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