The entire state is under either a flood advisory or a flood warning. Rain continues to fall very heavily. Some portions of New Jersey have already seen two inches of rain in just less than three hours. I am watching a general area of showers that are already pushing north and east. But behind that is a small, miniature line of embedded thunderstorms moving from Burlington County in Ocean and Monmouth Counties. These storms could contain wind gusts past 40 MPH easily.
There could be a break in the activity for a few hours and then a squall-line could remain intact and move north and east towards New Jersey. This line has prompted a tornado watch box to our south and poses the risk for damaging wind gusts where it tracks. We will have to wait and see whether this will impact our region, and there is a chance it may. This band has formed with what we call a low-level confluence zone, right on the heels of cold air advection or the cold front. Remember, I have been warning that when the surface low passes and the cold front we may see the winds gust past 50 MPH. This could be the activity that does in fact cause the strong wind gusts.
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