If you have been tired of the snowy winter and bitter cold, welcome to meteorological spring! You have made it! The first day of March concludes meteorological winter. Meteorological winter includes the months of December, January, and February. Measurable snow was recorded in some areas on Thanksgiving Day. However, the brunt of the snowfall came with a crippling blizzard the day after Christmas, also known as Boxing Day. Additional snowfall occurred during the month of January and depending on where you reside, some areas got blasted while others escaped. February was relatively quiet with snow, but icing ended up being a problem during the early part of the month. Seasonal snowfall totals averaged between 30 and 50 inches in New Jersey. This is well above normal.
But don’t get to comfortable yet. Any snow that falls in March and April will count as part of the seasonal record keeping. While measurable snow is less and less likely by the day and the odds of it happening decrease dramatically as we enter the middle portion of the month, it can still happen. There can sometimes be very big fluctuations in temperatures and precipitation timing has to be just right. This week we will see some of those fluctuations, but the air will be dry when it would be supportive of frozen precipitation.
Remember last year? March 12 and March 13 is when we observed a severe rain and wind event which caused the most power outages in utility company history for New Jersey. This brought us out of the snowiest winter ever for many in Southern New Jersey and a very significant winter for the remainder of New Jersey with the exception of Northwest New Jersey. The pattern seems to have changed a fair bit over the last few weeks and fortunately no big storms of that magnitude have occurred. There still has to be another shift to begin to push us to consistent 60 and 70 degree weather, so maybe we will see a storm during that transition.
Seasonal forecasts ended up being a bust, including yours truly. A moderate to strong phase of La Nina, which is typically known for less snow and above average temperatures, didn’t live to its usual reputation. What we call North Atlantic Oscillation created a blocking pattern which was strong enough to put us on the cold side of the jet stream (northern side), but not strong enough in many instances to push the jet so far south that we would be dry. In a normal La Nina, this factor would be non-existent for much of the time in our neck of the woods and therefore the jet would be to our north allowing mild air to lock in place which prevents snow when it precipitates. With the jet further north, one would expect then for the storms to track away from us meaning drier than normal conditions.
Some have been inconvenienced by the winter forecasts and it is understandable. But there are no apologies to be handed out. Seasonal forecasting is challenging and since it is the study of the long term, there will never be guarantees. Forecasters are constantly working on improving scientific data to develop insight into long term trends. There have been many pretty darn good forecasts for the long range in previous winters and we would have never come so close without the collection of data and different methods used to interpret that data. These good forecasts came about because in these particular seasons everything that occurred had been studied before and therefore could be seen well in advance. But sometimes there are unforeseen circumstances that develop without warning and these circumstances have no way of being detected as in 2010-2011. If anything, many will go back and analyze this past season to discover how to detect what has just happened in advance.
Spring long-range forecasting is simply off the table for me. Here, there are many gaps in the data…in fact solid data is hard to find in some areas that would be critical to putting together a complete package. I could make some educated guesses using what data there is, but these guesses very well could be quickly burnt to shreds. Look what happened this winter with just one area of less focus happening to be the most crucial. All I can say is be logical and go through logical questions in your head. Use this as an example. If you saw a lot of snow this winter, what would you expect for your waterway levels? Does this mean a flood?
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