Will there really be a coastal storm? Wll it snow? Will it rain?

Tonight, periods of showers will affect the southern half of the region with potential misting north. If these showers are heavy enough, they may drag colder air aloft down to the surface and change the precipitation over to wet snow. If a steady band of persistent showers develops north of the Atlantic City Expressway, some brief accumulations are possible. While temperatures in most areas with the extensive clouds may remain a degree or two above freezing, any pocket of immediate surface air that drops to 32 degrees may have to contend with some freezing drizzle. The models have already busted today on the temperatures with highs already around 50 degrees acheived in many areas... so at this point most areas will likely see liquid vs. frozen precipitation unless a real heavy t-storm could develop but I don't see that happening.

There is still a fair amount of disagreement amongst the computer modeling for Thursday Night into Friday. The potential remains for a Nor’easter according to some modeling while others show it not developing. Of the models that do show it, they have been continuing to flip flop and disagree with each other as to the exact track and strength which has huge implications with regards to wind, temperature, and precipitation type. Should we get a Nor’easter, the potential exists for heavy precipitation and strong winds.

Right now the NAM model, which has performed extremely well this winter in my opinion, is showing no major Nor’easter developing in our neck of the woods Thursday Night into Friday. The NAM model from 12z indicates the storm not rapidly developing until it nears Maine. The NAM is much slower with the energy timing.

Right now the GFS model from 12z is continuing to show torrential rain developing along with high winds across New Jersey. Potential wintry mix could occur still in Northwestern New Jersey. If this solution were accurate, some flooding and wind damage would be possible. The highest winds would be in our coastal communities with some strong winds even in the interior eastern counties. Coastal flooding is also possible with this solution. The GFS changed course from about 24 hours ago when it indicated on a few rogue and outlier runs that it would be wet snow vs. rain for much of New Jersey. I remain consistent (IF it occurs) that this will be mainly rain with the exception of Northwestern New Jersey and that elsewhere perhaps at times a few sleet pellets or wet flakes could mix in at the very onset and especially as the storm ends. There is a remote possibility of a brief burst of all wet snow as the storm ends which would accumulate on grassy surfaces, especially in Central New Jersey. I think the main concern to iron out for a forecaster at this point is to see if this storm actually doesn’t happen in our region as the NAM indicates. For the higher terrain of Northern New Jersey…this is where some heavy, wet snow or sleet hasn’t been ruled out. We shall see if flood watches or high wind watches are issued, but again there is the one reliable model saying nothing but a few snow showers or flurries.