Windy and Warm Friday

A very mild day is anticipated on Friday, the warmest day thus far of 2010 and the warmest day since October. 78 degrees is the record high temperature average across Central and Southern New Jersey. Many areas could be within three to four degrees of that number. A warm front will push through in the morning and some areas may start out mostly cloudy. If the warm front lifts northward as expected, the sunshine should come out relatively quickly allowing for a continuous surge in temperatures. Widespread maximums in the lower and mid-seventies would be likely if the clouds lift away. Some of the more aggressive models have been suggesting upper seventies for high temperatures. The bottom line is that this will be a perfect day for an outdoor break. There will be sufficient mixing as the sunshine comes out and therefore strong surface winds can be expected. Wind gusts may frequently gust between 30 and 45 MPH at times. This could knock a few branches down. The ground remains relatively moist, so while the wind and warmth will dry the immediate surface, fire danger does not appear to be excessively high at this moment. However, should flames be ignited, the warmth and wind could still fan the flames to some degree.

A cold front is expected to arrive late Friday Night and Saturday Morning. The computer models have been in disagreement on a wave of low pressure developing along the front. Some models indicate it developing and others do not have it at all. I have mentioned all week that moisture would be scarce and despite mild temperatures leading to some instability, the showers and thunderstorms cannot develop without sufficient moisture. I have moved the timing of any possible thunderstorm or shower until early Saturday Morning and I will keep the activity at isolated levels for now. The early morning arrival of any energy would also tend to mean reduced instability with no sunshine.

Monday looks to be mostly cloudy with showers likely. A warm front will lift northward. The models have not been too aggressive with the precipitation amounts, but overtime this may change. As we approach spring, warm fronts can sometimes be more active with thunderstorms. I’ll watch this potential closely. Tuesday through Thursday remains a challenging forecast with a backdoor cold front and waves of low pressure. Heck, some areas on the colder side of the front could be dealing with wintry precipitation while it could be quite balmy on the other side!

3.2" of snow is the March average.