Temperature Plunge Expected

Many record high temperatures have been exceeded or tied today. Newark and Trenton reached the lower eighties, higher than model guidance expectations offered yesterday. Even more interesting is that the locations that came within the 80 degree territory did not have a southwest wind, but rather a west-northwest wind component. Usually a northwest wind would drag cooler air down into our metro region. It was a perfect day to go outside and enjoy your break time. I spent the day with some friends today and during their break the warmth brought out the first wasps and bees of the season.

A dry cold front moved through earlier this afternoon. A weak wave of low pressure will pass through along the front late tonight into Saturday Morning. The models have all come into agreement that little precipitation will fall with this disturbance. However, with a sharp contrast behind the front and temperatures performing better than the guidance has suggested, some instability will exist for potential of some showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. I will continue to keep my slight, isolated chance of a late night and early morning thunderstorm. Most areas will primarily see an increase in cloud cover. Saturday will be much cooler, with highs in the middle fifties. The high temperature maximums in the upper fifties or lower sixties may occur very early in the morning.

Sunshine will be abundant on Sunday Morning, with high clouds later Sunday Evening. Sunday Night will be mostly cloudy. A warm front will lift northward on Monday. The models have not been too aggressive with the precipitation amounts, but overtime this may change. As we approach spring, warm fronts can sometimes be more active with thunderstorms. I’ll watch this potential closely.

Tuesday will likely be mild as the warm front lifts north. A cold front will move in late on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, the front pulls southward and much of the Garden State goes into the cooler air. A wave of low pressure may possibly form on the frontal boundary. If this is the case, the air behind the front could be supportive of wintry precipitation in at least some parts of New Jersey. Temperatures may plunge below normal at the end of next week.