As mentioned yesterday, there have been some changes made to the extended forecast graphic. Throughout the past few months there have been some great temperature differences from Trenton to Cape May, in some cases a difference by more than twenty degrees. With expected swings from north to south expected the remainder of this spring and summer sea breezes, a change to the graphics was necessary. The top row of numbers will be the forecast for the Trenton area and the bottom numbers will be the forecast for the Cape May area. Unfortunately, there could even be some differences in between these two cities and to account for this there is yet another change. Every forecast will come with a regional weather forecast for 24 hours out. This is the best compromise that could be hammered out at this time. If you have any suggestions, please email them to doug@phillyweather.net.
The forecast for the remainder of this week is very uncertain after tomorrow night. There is confusion building for both the mid-week system and the late-week systems on the computer modeling. It all has to do with the extent of the dry and cold air now in place across our region and when this finally erodes.
I suspect Tuesday will be another party sunny day, with mostly sunny skies in some areas. With the air remaining dry and wind gusts of 10 to 20 mph, some elevated fire danger continues. Another red flag warning type day is possible. There are rumblings a fire weather watch may replace the current red flag warning when it expires. Again, our Central New Jersey counties remain fairly moist. I was walking through a field yesterday and I obtained mud on my shoes up in that region. It will also remain well below average in the temperature department, another limiting factor. So like today, I don’t see the most ideal or critical fire weather situation transpiring.
For Wednesday, there are major questions at this point. The North American Model is suppressing the area of low pressure to our south. The Global Forecast System model is now not too robust with the northward extent of this system either in the latest modeling. So, it appears Wednesday is cold, possibly mostly cloudy, and there could be some flurries or snow showers, especially towards evening or at night. Some models are suggesting the snowflakes melting in the upper levels, but not enough cold air to refreeze the drops to form sleet. Therefore, there could be some drizzle droplets. Areas, especially north of 195, could experience freezing drizzle if this was the case as below freezing temperatures may be found once again at the immediate surface. Wednesday-Wednesday Night has the potential to be much drier and see the comments at the end of this post. One high resolution model I use shows some snow bursts around Ocean and Burlington Counties around 10 p.m. Wednesday Night.
On Thursday Night into Friday, the Global Forecast System model shows a coastal storm affecting the region with a mixture of rain, sleet, wet snow, and freezing rain in Northwestern New Jersey and rain…initially starting as a mixture in some areas…elsewhere. However, should this storm “bomb out” and track a certain way as some model guidance is hinting at, the storm could potentially be colder in nature and I could see a few portions of New Jersey piling up snow if this was the case. Wind, precipitation type, surface temperatures, tidal effects, and storm track is still very uncertain.
Wednesday through Saturday could need huge and dramatic temperature and precipitation adjustments in later forecasts that I issue. Take note.
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