Another cold tonight is on tap with lows in the upper teens and lower twenties. Some high clouds will begin to become noticeable overnight and during the day on Friday. A warm front moving through on Friday Afternoon and Friday Evening will swing through without much measurable precipitation, if any at all. Warmer air moving in on Friday Night into Saturday Morning may combine with increasing moisture to form some areas of low clouds. Clouds will thin on Saturday and some peaks of sunshine could push to or above 60 degrees. The clouds will increase and thicken again on Saturday Night ahead of a cold front.
The cold front will arrive on Sunday. The timing on the model guidance today is in much less agreement than on the guidance yesterday. The GFS would have rain moving in quicker than the NAM model and this would have an impact on temperatures and we all know this plays a factor in the available instability. The computer models do show some pretty decent forcing for six to twelve hours as the front moves through the region which is indicative of a soaking rain and even a few thunderstorms for that length of time, especially as an area of low pressure moves northward along the front. A quick inch to an inch and one half of rain may fall before the front pushes offshore. Isolated maximum rainfall reports of two to three inches are possible where thunderstorms occur, although there is considerable uncertainty on the convection threat. This rain in such a short time frame could cause street flooding, poor drainage flooding, and cause significant rises (but in most instances the rises will remain below flood stage) on the tributaries, creeks, and streams. I think most areas will be able to handle an inch of rain, despite some higher than normal waterway levels and ditches having more than half of their capacity. The guidance continues to suggest a more significant rain event west of New Jersey. The wind on Sunday may pick up with the frontal passage or any thunderstorms. The wind forecast will be examined more closely on Saturday Evening.
Slow clearing will be underway on Monday, with a sunny day to follow on Tuesday. Wednesday will be impacted with a warm front, followed by a cold front perhaps as late as Thursday. More heavy showers and thunderstorms could be possible…along with gusty winds.
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