Different Weather Conditions Across NJ Tonight-Thursday AM

All eyes are on an area of low pressure across the Ohio River Valley that is projected to move eastward this evening. Numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms have developed along the corridor in which the low pressure area is moving and this activity will move eastward. Low-topped convection is likely later tonight into early Thursday Morning. With a low freezing level, despite marginal instability, some of the thunderstorms have the potential to produce hailstones. Some of the hail could be of penny or nickel size in the strongest thunderstorms. I have noticed the recent severe thunderstorm watch issuance for portions of Central Pennsylvania, where it is only 40-45 degrees for an air temperature. By Pittsburgh where the storms are right now it is 60-68 degrees. It may be possible some of the hailstones reach quarter size which would be the threshold for a severe thunderstorm classification. The best chance for thunderstorms is south of the Interstate 195 corridor. With temperatures so cold however, lack of sunshine, and night arrival of the storms…I am hopeful the thunderstorms will be isolated in nature. This will be an evolving situation. It wouldn't shock me if a warm slot of 50 degree air suddenly pushed into South Jersey ahead of the front...that is just another factor to watch...

Otherwise, the additional showers moving eastward will move into the colder air in Northern and Central New Jersey. This will allow for periods of wet snow and sleet, possibly mixing with rain. In Northwestern New Jersey, this will be all wet snow. It should be noted that the NAM is still indicating (although not as aggressive) a brief period of wet snow in areas north of the Atlantic City Expressway on Thursday Morning. A period of wet snow and sleet is possible in these areas, but everything has to fit in line perfectly.

A large spread is on the computer modeling for this weekend and early next week with regards to two separate storm systems. Mixed precipitation or snow is possible should there be measurable precipitation.