Morning Commute Change to Wet Snow?

I continue to watch the period around the morning commute for problems in New Jersey due to frozen precipitation. A strong cold front is being projected to sweep the area between 5:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. Precipitation has an opportunity to intensify ahead of this cold front as there appears to be strong convergence which will produce some lift in the atmosphere. The models for days have been indicating interaction with the offshore energy and although the models have lost it late tonight, I believe it is a plausible scenario. The scattered rain showers and pockets of drizzle could evolve into more concentrated (possibly narrow or squally) area of steady precipitation during the commute, as the front comes in. The precipitation is forecast to change to wet snow and sleet at this time and it could be a nasty hour or two in some spots with reduced visibilities and even a quick coating of snow. The coating of snow will be hard to earn as the ground will be wet and initially above freezing due to the temperatures early this morning, but it can be achieved with a heavy snow rate and dropping temperatures. There certainly could be an isolated thunderstorm which could cause some heavy snowfall since there are steep lapse rates. Temperatures will drop as the snow begins and they could go down to around freezing north of the Atlantic City Expressway causing some icy conditions.

I certainly don’t have the highest confidence in this change to wet snow and sleet playing out as planned, but there is a possibility of this happening and it warrants being highlighted. If this does happen later this morning, the timing would classify it as a high-impact winter weather event.

We then focus on the windy conditions which have the potential to cause problems with weakened tree branches and trees as gusts could be up to or in excess of 50 MPH for a time later Tuesday Morning into Tuesday Evening.