The newest North American Model run from 00z is now in and looks very similar to the 12z and 18z Global Forecast System Model. The NAM is now showing a stronger wave developing along a strong cold front expected to pass through our region and the NAM clearly shows the wave interacting with energy coming up from the Southeastern United States that will pass to the east of New Jersey. The majority of the precipitation according to the NAM comes when the “540 Line” is more than 200 miles offshore. This suggests a light accumulation of snow and sleet as there is 0.10” to 0.25” of liquid to work with according to the model.
Of course, the 00z GFS looks more like the 18z NAM with the area of 0.10” to 0.25” of available liquid more confined to Northern New Jersey.
The higher resolution models continue to show mainly rain over New Jersey, but I am very doubtful of this if the “540 Line” is well offshore as both the GFS and NAM agree on during the majority of precipitation.
Certainly it looks like any rain and rain/snow mixture will be going over to snow and that there could be a light accumulation early on Tuesday Morning which may cause hazardous travel for the morning rush hour. There are two possibilities after analyzing all of the model runs over the past eighteen hours. Either this will be confined to Northern New Jersey or it will affect all of New Jersey. Afterwards, winds will begin to gust between 40 and 50 MPH once the clouds begin to clear and temperatures drop throughout the afternoon hours on Tuesday.
There is a low probability the Southeastern United States moisture tracks closer to the coastline and gives us more significant precipitation on Tuesday Morning.
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