2/15/2011 Extended Forecast: 70 Possible on Friday in NJ

Diminishing winds...with a real lack of wind late tonight, clear skies, dry air, and an area of high pressure with the coldest core right over us will result in a strong cooling night. Temperatures will drop into the teens across much of New Jersey. We still have snow cover north of Interstate 195 and this is where the lowest minimum temperatures will be. I cannot rule out an isolated single digit number.

A very fast reversal is expected for Wednesday with highs in the lower fifties. Some areas could even hit the mid-fifties in Southern New Jersey. As the warm air advection occurs in the area, more clouds and even isolated rain showers are possible. Otherwise, I expect sixties for highs on Thursday and with the warmer air mixing to the surface, expect a gusty southwest wind. On Friday, another afternoon of very gusty winds can be expected with record-challenging high temperatures approaching 65 in Central New Jersey and 70 in Southern New Jersey.

A cold front is expected to arrive Friday Night into Saturday Morning. I think there will be some gusty rain showers and even a few thunderstorms. Strong winds will occur behind the front as cold air advection begins to intrude New Jersey. Saturday will be much cooler with highs in the range of 47-53 should the frontal timing be as fast as the latest guidance indicates. Wind advisory criteria gusts [46-57 MPH] are possible on Saturday.

Afterwards, a bit of a complicated setup may evolve for the timeframe of Monday into Tuesday. There appears to be colder air in place and some triggering mechanisms which could increase the threat for a wintry mix of precipitation, including some wet snow, sleet, and rain. Remember, we seem to see storminess coming off of a 60-70 degree warm-up which I warned of about a week ago. The overall look to the system on the long range models indicates an event which warmer air comes up with a warm frontal passage, making transitioning precipitation types a good possibility. The main low driving the front will be passing to our west, as a Great Lakes cutter.