It is quite an interesting look at the temperature map this afternoon. This winter we normally saw the warmest temperatures along the immediate coastline as the ocean water was actually warmer than the air temperatures we observed for the past two months. Now, it is just the reverse. The air temperatures are warmer than the ocean. Therefore, the coastal communities are about 6 to 10 degrees cooler. Tonight, with the strong southwest flow, I do not believe temperatures will drop much. In fact, they will likely rise through the overnight hours. If the southwest winds continue, we may avoid some fog development. However, should the winds temporarily drop off; there could be some areas of fog.
Some of the more advanced guidance I look at suggests lower sixties during through the morning hours across a good portion of Southern New Jersey, with fifties elsewhere. This certainly would not be impossible if the southwest wind is gusty. For now, I am forecasting upper fifties in the graphic which is the halfway point between 55 in Central New Jersey and 60 in South Jersey. The snow cover which I address below will play a role in temperatures until it melts and if you happen to be one of those remaining counties with a lot of snow on the ground, shave a few degrees off the temperatures.
Speaking of the gusty winds, we could have some trees and branches come down. Strong southwest winds will develop just prior to the frontal passage, and then followed by strong northwest winds in the afternoon as cooler air comes rushing in. Wind gusts could be 45 to 55 MPH range for a few hours. A wind advisory will probably be issued for Monday. I can’t really see how it cannot be issued for New Jersey based on the latest guidance.
As far as fire danger concerns go, I do not see much of an elevated opportunity for forest fires. The southern part of New Jersey, basically south of Interstate 195 has lost 90% of the snow cover. But the ground remains quite muddy and moist from my observations. North of Interstate 195, particularly in Monmouth and Middlesex Counties, it’s the reversal. 90% of the snow cover remains on the ground. There is a chance of some scattered rain showers, but these do not look widespread or terribly heavy. The bottom line is that despite a drying wind and above average temperatures, I do not see the potential for forest fires. I think this will be a different scenario for Maryland and Delaware where the snow has actually been lacking for a good deal of the season and so has precipitation.
Cold air advection and a northwest flow could cause a few areas of snow flurries for Monday Night into Tuesday. It will remain brisk on Tuesday.
A reversal begins Wednesday. Highs in the lower fifties are now anticipated. As the warm air advection lifts through, there could be a chance of isolated rain showers and some increased cloudiness. Thursday and Friday look quite balmy at this point. Lower sixties across a good deal of the area can be expected by Thursday Afternoon with Friday even milder. I think Southern New Jersey could see some pockets approach 70 degrees. I suspect Saturday will be the last day of 60 degrees before a strong cold front slides through the region which could bring a chance of showers and gusty thunderstorms with it. There could be more of an increased fire dangerous risk late in the week in the southern areas. Watch out for wasps on Friday as they get quite aggressive when it becomes warm. They feel like they have been attacked from the sharp cold.
From Tom's post yesterday on Phillyweather.net (the other site which I contribute to): [Got many questions about whether snow is done this season in my e-mail today]
February has featured 22 years where the thermometer has cracked 60 in Philadelphia. In each of those 22 years we've had at least a trace of snow and in 18 of the 22 we got at least a tenth of an inch (measurable). The largest snowstorm in these 22 years is 9 inches, the March 1st-2nd, 2009 event in Philadelphia, with only 1984 bringing us more than 10" of snow in March and April in the last 30 years.
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