TGIF---No big wx systems requiring me to wait for 18z Data...so enjoy the early post.
A big shout out to Barbara at the New Jersey State Police Division Headquarters! Happy Birthday and enjoy your milestone!!!!! Barbara is a huge fan of this new site that started in January. Speaking of this website, I am happy to announce that I have had 15,423 page views since the start of the site on January 16, 2011. That number is absolutely remarkable for a site not even one month old. I have tried to spread the word as much as possible about the site on other weather sites. Now that the weather is beginning to become a bit more tranquil, I will work on additional graphics and links during the next few weeks. I have spoken to some who have been doing a website for quite a few years and they do note that traffic slows down somewhat when wintry precipitation is out of the equation. Please print out the site and pass word to your friends and family!
Today has been relatively quiet and sunny. Temperatures today came up nearly thirty-degrees from the morning minimums. Temperatures also exceeded the guidance in most cases today. With even warmer temperatures on the models tomorrow along with a stronger southerly flow, I think the maximums will be in excess of the guidance. Therefore, I am going to forecast highs in the upper forties as model guidance paints 44-46 degrees. If everything goes well, 50 degrees may occur in a few spots in New Jersey. A weak frontal boundary will pass by and this could increase the cloudiness and produce isolated rain showers. On Sunday, highs will likely have a good chance at breaking 50 degrees in several locations. Another disturbance will develop on Sunday Night and linger into Monday Morning bringing another chance for rain showers. This weekend, the best potential for precipitation is the further north one lives or travels. We will have to watch the increase in moisture for some nighttime low cloud development.
Colder air will sweep in for Tuesday, but it will not be sharp. Highs in the lower and middle forties will still be quite possible. Aloft, the air could be supportive of a few snow flurries with the cold air advection. On Wednesday, we begin to see a quick rebound. Thursday and Friday will be the mildest stretch in two months with widespread fifties and some highs topping or exceeding 60 degrees. Again I will warn that sometimes we can see quick changes in temperature in less than a week and a precipitation maker when the colder air filters in. We have seen a 72 degree day followed by sleet and snow 48 hours later. Remember, historical records of reported snowfall and ice exist into the middle portions of March. However, with higher sun-angles and longer days…time is running out but that clock still has a few weeks left.
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