The clouds will continue to increase across our region ahead of a cold front and ahead of a piece of energy approaching from the Southeastern United States. Precipitation will likely not break out until the cold front gets to about Eastern Pennsylvania. The energy from the south will likely miss us to our east, but interact with the cold front once the front enters New Jersey. This has the potential to intensify the precipitation late in the game across New Jersey. The precipitation will start as a rain or a rain and wet snow mixture and end as wet snow if the latest high resolution model is correct. The temperatures will crash as the cold air advection runs in, so we will have to continue to monitor air temperatures during the morning commute as the switch to wet snow occurs. It is quite unusual that the “540 Line” is well offshore and yet we are dealing with some mixing. As previously stated, I do not recall many times where it was warm enough through the boundary layer to produce liquid with this scenario. Anyhow, mix or rain to snow is the call here. It could be quite impressive for an hour or two in some parts of New Jersey when the switch occurs as the wet snow could reduce visibilities as it could come in a heavier burst as it pushes off the coastline. There could be a light snow accumulation from this system, most likely in the Northwestern New Jersey area. Update late tonight on this. . .
Clouds will thin the remainder of the morning. However, more will bubble up as the day continues. Cold air advection will be rushing in and a weak impulse could cause some snow showers and snow squalls to develop. This is most likely north of Route 1, but it can happen virtually everywhere. These squalls could put down a quick coating and rapidly reduce visibility with the expected wind gusts. Lake-effect machines will try to contribute, but they could be shut down if the lakes are frozen enough.
Wind speeds look quite impressive for Tuesday. Soundings suggest 35 to 50 MPH wind gusts being the general rule across the region. However, the soundings also suggest isolated wind gusts perhaps in excess of 50 MPH for a time. With the weakened trees and tree limbs after the rough winter of wet snow and ice, we definitely could see power outages. I’ll continue to keep you posted if wind advisories are issued. See the wind projector map in the previous post.
Wednesday looks to be mostly sunny during the day with increasing clouds in the evening hours. On Wednesday Night into Thursday we will be watching the development of a low pressure area off the Carolina coastline. The models continue to indicate that this feature will head out to sea. However, the North American Model does indicate some clouds spreading across most of our region with some light snow possibly breaking out for Cape May County. This storm overall must be monitored for a potential northern and western shift over the next few days and it will not be until Tuesday Night (I sound like a broken record) that I will have a better idea on the development of this system. Some of our computer modeling data over the past day or so has indicated Thursday to be a partly cloudy day. Again, the Boxing Day Snowstorm gave us forty-eight hour notice and this system coming on Thursday is on the heels of a pattern change. The storm was on the models and they lost it, so do they bring it back? I will maintain a low chance of snow with a bigger cloud icon indicating there is a higher potential for just overcast skies. Per the latest 18z GFS, I have inserted a faint sunshine icon for now.
Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be affected by what occurs on Wednesday Night and Thursday. A coastal storm moving to our northeast would draw in much colder air whereas an out to sea solution means we will see a quick rebound for the weekend. It still appears that by early next week, we may begin to see signs of spring. I would not be surprised to see a 60 degree day next week.
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