A gusty, southwest wind will help push the temperatures well into the sixties on Friday for 99% of the State of New Jersey. Some areas will be challenging and actually break the record high temperatures that are on the books for Friday, February 18. I still believe some areas will maximize around 70 degrees for a high temperature. The snow has been shrinking in Central New Jersey, North of Interstate 195, and open patches are now developing. With higher dew points most of the night and above freezing temperatures, a lot more will melt during the night. There still will be just enough to keep temperatures down a few degrees lower, if not due to the moist ground from the melting which can also play a role in temperature. Meanwhile, in Southern New Jersey, where melting snow stopped earlier this week and there is no longer any snow cover, we could have some fire danger concerns with the gusty winds on Friday. The top half-inch of soil will be dry enough to not preclude enhanced fire danger. By the way, colder ocean water temperatures may have a localized impact along our immediate coastal communities. It could be foggy and stuck in the fifties along the coast as warmer air rides over a colder ocean perhaps producing some low clouds.
On Friday Evening and Friday Night, a cold front will approach the region. This front does lack a good moisture source. However, there is a pretty good contrast in temperature with this front where it is 40 degrees on the backside and 60-70 degrees on the front side. This could allow enough lift for a few rain showers and thunderstorms. The models really don’t show much available liquid. If we see some highs of around seventy degrees, there will be some modest instability generated for some thunder. This may not be a widespread event at all; indeed it could be very isolated. But where a shower or thunderstorm develops, it could contain some gusty winds.
For Saturday, a strong pressure gradient develops across our region. Strong cold air advection will push well into New Jersey with an impressive northwesterly flow. 40 to 65 Knots of wind is available aloft and this will likely be able to mix down to the surface. At least 40 to 50 Knots of wind making it down to the ground would be reasonable. Therefore, I am forecasting a very windy day for Saturday and I again think a wind advisory or even a high wind warning may be issued for Saturday as we get closer to the day in which these wind gusts are probable. Some utility lines and branches could come down as a result of the wind, if not some whole trees. Fire danger again could be elevated. 50's early...temperatures drop off quickly with late day wind chills.
The one change from my forecast yesterday has been to speed up a warm frontal passage to Sunday Evening through Monday Morning. This means that Sunday will be sunny in the morning with a quick arrival of clouds by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be upper thirties to lower forties on Sunday with temperatures falling back as the sun settles for the evening. Temperatures will be cold enough for an onset of either wet snow & sleet, or a mix of wet snow, rain, and sleet. The precipitation should transition to rain as warmer air advection lifts in with the northward moving warm frontal boundary. In northern areas, temperatures may fall back close enough to the freezing mark for some freezing rain. Temperatures will rise on Monday for all rain by the morning commute if the current guidance is correct. The one thing that strikes me is that some of the models show the front having quite a bit of difficulty lifting through, trapping the colder air the further north one lives or travels. These types of fronts can get trapped resulting in a 15 or greater degree temperature spread. Temperatures may be drastically different from Cape May to Newark on Monday.
The latest guidance suggests a lull in the precipitation on Monday. As the first low pressure area exits the region, it should begin to funnel in colder air. A second area of low pressure will likely approach the region later on Monday into Tuesday. As this system moves in, we could see a transition from rain to frozen precipitation. The heaviest axis of precipitation with this second system could be in Southern New Jersey. An accumulating snow and sleet event is not out of the question for parts of the region. Tuesday Morning could be a mess, especially in South Jersey.
No comments:
Post a Comment