Rain should arrive in the region early Monday Morning. The morning commute could feature some heavy downpours and even some rumbles of thunder. An inch of rain, maybe more, could fall with a round of precipitation associated with a warm front lifting through New Jersey. The rain will be heaviest the further north one lives or travels in the morning hours. Sometimes warm fronts can suddenly produce a burst of strong thunderstorms right before sunrise with some frequent lightning. Warm fronts love to become more active at night in the region. I am not sure if this will be the case, but this will have to be monitored. If you are traveling to far NW NJ, there is a freezing rain advisory as temperatures will be around 32 for the first hour or two of the rain there.
By the late morning hours, the warm front could still be trying to life through Northern New Jersey. Meanwhile, the front will clear Central and Southern New Jersey. As the front clears, the clouds will dissolve and the sun will come out. Temperatures should spike into the middle and upper sixties by the mid-afternoon hours. It may even have a humid feel to the air as dew points should surge with an increasing southerly flow of moisture. The sun will allow for some mixing and some very gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front will take place. The wind gusts may approach range between 40 and 50 MPH for a time in the afternoon which could take down some branches and weak trees.
During the late afternoon and evening hours, a strong cold front will approach the warm sector. If we indeed seek sufficient breaks in the clouds, the sunshine will increase the instability. Therefore the frontal passage will possibly be accompanied by thunderstorms. Strong winds aloft, shear, and rich moisture will lead to the potential for some severe thunderstorms. The primary threat would be damaging wind gusts, but there could be an isolated tornado. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Central and Southern New Jersey under a slight risk designation of severe thunderstorms in their day two convective outlook. There could be some strong, non-thunderstorm wind gusts prior to the frontal passage and immediately behind the frontal system. The high resolution modeling has remained consistent in showing a severe weather outbreak during the later portion of Monday.
Round two could bring another inch or two of rain on top of the morning rain. With the heavy rain on Friday and recent melting snow, there is the potential for creeks and streams to flood. The greatest risk of the flooding will be where the rain in the morning is heaviest. This appears to be in Northern and Central New Jersey. Mercer, Hunterdon, Somerset, Essex, Union, Hudson, Bergen, and Passaic Counties are under a flood watch. I would not be surprised if some areas are added to this watch or if warnings without a prior watch are issued. The late evening guidance is suggest a quick two inches of rain in less than six hours in Southern New Jersey and I don’t think the streams will be able to handle that amount of rain.
Tuesday will be cooler, but windy. Wind gusts will be at least between 30 and 40 MPH. Some of the model guidance suggests some higher wind gusts as the area of low pressure pulling away combines with an incoming high to tighten the pressure gradient.
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