Precipitation arrives around or before Midnight.
A winter weather advisory has been issued for Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Bergen, Union, Essex, Hudson, and Passaic Counties. These areas will likely see a burst of heavy precipitation overnight with a warm front and it will also be cold enough for several hours of wet snow and sleet. Two to four inches of accumulation is quite possible in these areas, with perhaps localized higher amounts. There could even be some rain or freezing rain mixed in at times in these areas. The latest high resolution models are showing that it continues to snow and sleet in Northern New Jersey even into the morning commute. The “540 Line” on the 18z GFS and 18z NAM continues not to move north of Central New Jersey which is a change from twenty-four hours ago.
Meanwhile, in areas between Interstate 195 and the Atlantic City Expressway, there will initially be sleet and possible wet snow. A gradual rise in temperatures in this area should allow the snow and sleet to switch over to rain. The models are not painting much measurable precipitation in this area and with a faster transition expected here, I would suspect the accumulations will be limited to a coating to an inch at most. Should the precipitation be more pronounced in this area or should temperatures not respond to the warm air advection, then we could have some problems this far south as well and this will have to be handled with great caution.
From the Atlantic City Expressway and points south, the model guidance does not show much measurable precipitation at all. The lack of heavy intensity and warmer air temperatures suggests a drizzle and fog situation here with gradually rising temperatures in this area. The area will be entering the warm sector into Monday Morning and some very gusty winds may develop in the area, eventually dissipating the fog. The wind gusts could be strong for a time in this area. Should a shower form before the morning commute, it could contain some sleet pellets.
A lull is likely by midday. Temperatures will rise and will begin to drop as the evening approaches. There could be quite a contrast from north to south.
Round two, with an area of low pressure moving to our south, will be an even colder event. The change here is that the guidance has shifted the low further to the north and so has this expected aggressive band of heavier precipitation. It appears as though temperatures will rapidly drop as precipitation breaks out with this second round late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. This means rain will likely transition to snow and sleet. There could be precipitation heavy enough for accumulations in the zone from Interstate 195 and points south. The precipitation may be heaviest in Cape May County, but this is where it will be warmest. Overall, this band is going to setup somewhere and could be quite intense where it does, even possibly containing some thunderstorms. There could be a sharp gradient in snow and sleet with this band, especially if it is a narrow intense band of snow as some of our higher resolution models show. Transitioning precipitation types, mixing, and warmer ground temperatures make the accumulation projections quite difficult with this second system. Some places could end up with 3 to 6 inches of snow, but where is the big question.
Wednesday through Friday will be impacted by any potential snow on the ground. A warm front will approach on Thursday with a strong cold front and low pressure area on Friday. Friday could end up being quite wet according to the long term guidance. The clouds and rain look to limit the temperatures in the extended, which if it was not raining would have a shot at reaching 60 degrees. The cold front timing is also faster and therefore Saturday won’t be as warm as I initially was hoping for.
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