Every single day, for about the last week, I have received numerous inquiries about a Thursday, February 10, 2011 major snowstorm for our region. It is not going to happen. The inquiries started after two well respected forecasters predicted a storm that would rival those of past century in the Middle Atlantic Region. All but one storm this season was seen well in advance on the models and came back to haunt our region and I think some forecasters got too accustomed to this. It is normal for the computer guidance to dream up these storms and only keep them as a dream. Let’s face the facts everyone. We have seen more snow during the seasons of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 then 98% of our previous seasons since records were kept in 1950. With snowfall amounts of 25 to 45 inches across the Garden State this year, it would be unusual for us to see any additional snow. This system will bring some extra cloudiness to the area and perhaps a snow shower to extreme Southeastern New Jersey.
The North Atlantic Oscillation was negative for the better part of this present season, which is unusual to have coinciding with a moderate to strong phase of La Nina. This resulted in more storminess than usual for the phase of La Nina we currently have and it also helped to lock in the colder temperatures to support snow when it was stormy. Had this not been negative, we would have seen the typical La Nina of ice and rain and below average precipitation. Anyhow, for the last two weeks it has begun to progress towards the positive side and the cold dome has been able to retreat, allowing the storms to cut to our west which draws in the warmer air.
Believe it or not, there has been a bit of a negative push for the last forty-eight hours and this is what is actually protecting us from receiving a major snowfall. It is more typical of La Nina to have these quick shots of colder air (sharp ones), rather than extended periods of them where they moderate overtime without losing the colder air to give us snow. In fact, it is typical in the stronger La Nina to have sharp cold that blocks storms when we have perfect temperatures to make snow and they get pushed our quick enough where the air is warm enough for icing and rain. Cold air is more dense and heavier and this blocks moisture.
The models clearly show this blocking retreating for an extended period of time beginning this weekend. As this happens, the chances for snow will decrease as the days get longer and the added sunshine adds a few degrees every week to our average temperatures. The winter is not done by any stretch of the imagination as there will likely be the chance at a storm or two that could take advantage of what colder air there is to produce some wintry mix or ice. But these storms should come less often. In fact, I suspect that in the next two or three weeks we will begin to see days where temperatures push past 60 degrees. Of course there are storms where it is up to 70 in our area and 48 hours later we have sleet and freezing rain. Of course, it just takes one storm the remainder of this month with a lot of rain to raise waterway concerns with all the snow on the ground the past two months.
Pattern changes usually do bring major storms. I think a complete pattern change is waiting in the wings around late February or early March. However, it can be argued that the ice storm and the weekend rainstorm was that changer.
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