Many areas, especially south of Interstate 195 where snow is nearly non-existent, made it into the lower fifties today. I still believe the majority of the guidance numbers suggesting highs in the upper fifties for Thursday are a few degrees too low and I am siding with the guidance with the higher numbers. Therefore, I suspect lower sixties, if not middle sixties, will be possible on Thursday. For now, I have a high temperature forecasted around 62 degrees. In Central New Jersey, it will be a bit of a challenge as the snow on the ground of at least an inch can reflect the sun fairly well, prohibiting the full extent of daytime heating. Middlesex and Monmouth Counties have the greatest amount of snow still covering the ground in the forecast area.
On Friday, record-challenging high temperatures are still anticipated. I am still confident to forecast 70 degrees in my graphics as some locations will maximize around 70 degrees. By Friday, one must wonder how much snow will remain on the ground in Central New Jersey with higher dew points on Thursday and Thursday Night. Anyhow, sixties will be widespread across New Jersey for Friday. Both Thursday and Friday will be blustery with a gusty southwest wind. This will increase the fire danger in Southern New Jersey where the melting snow ended a few days ago allowing the immediate half inch of the soil surface to dry out.
A strong cold front will move through our area on Friday Night. This front appears to have limited moisture with it. However, it still could definitely produce a narrow line of gusty showers and even a few thunderstorms. There is going to be a sharp contrast in temperature, so I do think some thunder mention continues to be warranted.
For Saturday, a strong pressure gradient develops across our region. Strong cold air advection will push well into New Jersey with an impressive northwesterly flow. 40 to 65 Knots of wind is available aloft and this will likely be able to mix down to the surface. At least 40 to 50 Knots of wind making it down to the ground would be reasonable. Therefore, I am forecasting a very windy day for Saturday and I again think a wind advisory or even a high wind warning may be issued for Saturday.
Sunday looks to be mostly sunny and breezy. Clouds will be on the increase on President’s Day. Monday Evening into Tuesday is probably going to be unsettled with various precipitation types depending on location. Temperatures could drop for the evening before the majority of warm front induced precipitation arrives, allowing for some wet snow and sleet. Then as the warm front lifts through, a chance to rain and or freezing rain could occur. There is considerable uncertainty as to whether a low pressure area to our west, which would bring in warmer air, would transfer any energy and form another low center east of it and then there is a question as to how strong that eastern low would be. No low, allows warmth and rain. A secondary low taking over allows for more of a mixed event and holds the colder air on longer. The EURO from yesterday suggested a much stronger coastal low developing which could mean more sleet and snow vs. rain. I think our time is running out for snow, but it is not completely gone. More details will be revealed when the cold front movers through on Friday Night, setting up the exact pattern.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is longer negative, and we typically need this for a significant winter storm. Looking at the overall pattern this early out, I will find it difficult for anything but a few hours of a wintry mix.
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