Round one is done. For many portions of Morris, Bergen, Passaic, Warren, and Sussex Counties, they are using the snow blower. 5 to 9 inches were reported in these counties, with lesser amounts in the lower elevations. Essex County received 2 to 5 inches of snow. Somerset, Hunterdon, Hudson, Union, and Middlesex Counties generally got one to two inches, with localized three inch amounts. Monmouth, Burlington, Gloucester, Atlantic, and Mercer Counties have received localized trace to one-half inch amounts, although this quickly melted by daybreak. The counties that got 5 to 9 inches of snow met winter storm criteria (6 inches in these counties), so this was a much bigger deal than had been anticipated, with the advisory issued.
...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
PLEASANTVILLE 0.1 700 AM 2/21
ATLANTIC CITY AIRPOR 0.1 700 AM 2/21
...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
FLORENCE 0.5 500 AM 2/21
WRIGHTSTOWN 0.2 700 AM 2/21
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 0.1 700 AM 2/21
MOUNT LAUREL T 700 AM 2/21
...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
NATIONAL PARK T 700 AM 2/21
...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WHITEHOUSE STATION 2.2 725 AM 2/21
2 NW WHITEHOUSE STAT 1.8 755 AM 2/21
FLEMINGTON 1.8 830 AM 2/21
WERTSVILLE 0.8 730 AM 2/21
...MERCER COUNTY...
EWING 0.4 710 AM 2/21
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
METUCHEN 1.1 608 AM 2/21
NEW BRUNSWICK 1.0 800 AM 2/21
...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
FREEHOLD T 800 AM 2/21
...MORRIS COUNTY...
BUTLER 7.8 814 AM 2/21
1 NNE PETERSBURG 7.0 756 AM 2/21
MARCELLA 6.7 837 AM 2/21
BOONTON 5.0 900 AM 2/21
ROCKAWAY 4.0 730 AM 2/21
...SOMERSET COUNTY...
POTTERSVILLE 3.2 700 AM 2/21
BEDMINSTER 2.0 757 AM 2/21
BRIDGEWATER TWP 1.8 859 AM 2/21
SOMERVILLE 1.5 730 AM 2/21
HILLSBOROUGH 1.0 757 AM 2/21
...SUSSEX COUNTY...
NEWTON 8.0 850 AM 2/21
WANTAGE 6.8 809 AM 2/21
SPARTA 6.3 830 AM 2/21
FREDON 6.0 818 AM 2/21
...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 6.2 819 AM 2/21
BELVIDERE 4.0 755 AM 2/21
HACKETTSTOWN 3.5 735 AM 2/21
PHILLIPSBURG 2.5 708 AM 2/21
STEWARTSVILLE 2.4 715 AM 2/21
...BERGEN COUNTY...
MAHWAH 7.6 900 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RAMSEY 7.3 830 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
1 SSE OAKLAND 7.1 845 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
ALLENDALE 7.0 1108 AM 2/21 PUBLIC
RIVERVALE 7.0 1100 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RIDGEWOOD 6.3 700 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ELMWOOD PARK 5.7 830 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WNW OAKLAND 5.5 700 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
LODI 5.5 1029 AM 2/21 PUBLIC
ORADELL 5.4 900 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
EAST RUTHERFORD 5.0 1109 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
1 W TENAFLY 4.4 715 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
GARFIELD 4.2 800 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
1 E SADDLE BROOK TWP 4.0 830 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
...ESSEX COUNTY...
CEDAR GROVE 5.2 835 AM 2/21 PUBLIC
WEST ORANGE 4.3 900 AM 2/21 PUBLIC
MONTCLAIR 4.0 930 AM 2/21 PUBLIC
NEWARK AIRPORT 2.0 700 AM 2/21 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
...HUDSON COUNTY...
HARRISON 3.5 945 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
N HARRISON 3.0 800 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
HOBOKEN 2.8 930 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
...PASSAIC COUNTY...
RINGWOOD 8.0 930 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER-900 FT
WEST MILFORD 7.9 1030 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER-1100 FT
3 NE WEST MILFORD TW 7.5 330 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
WAYNE 7.0 858 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
1 SSE HAWTHORNE 6.5 900 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
1 WNW LITTLE FALLS T 5.5 900 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
1 SSW WAYNE TWP 5.0 700 AM 2/21 COCORAHS
...UNION COUNTY...
ELIZABETH 2.9 900 AM 2/21 SKYWARN SPOTTER
The temperatures this morning show quite a contrast, as expected, from northwest to southeast. It is around 25 degrees in Sussex County and around 45 degrees in Cape May County. Snow cover is impacting the temperatures in the north.
A cold front will approach from the west this evening. A pretty remarkable area of low pressure will be giving the front a boast and at the same time the low will be moving to our south. The models have shifted the axis of heavier snow northward over the past two days. This band will likely impact the areas that did not receive as much snow from this event. The latest 12z NAM guidance shows (without any mixing/temperatures taken into account) a general 2 to 6 inches of snow in Southern New Jersey with localized banding amounts of 6 to 9 inches in Southwestern New Jersey. The latest 12z GFS guidance shows a general 2 to 6 inches in Southern New Jersey. There appears to be a very sharp cutoff on both models. On the NAM, it is arguably at Interstate 195. On the GFS, it is at or just below Route 537 which runs through Burlington and Ocean Counties. The NAM has been excellent at picking up convective features and banding this season, and I do buy the banding it shows moving across Southern New Jersey leading to the higher amounts. This is what the guidance is spitting out if it were all snow, but not the forecast.
This evening, colder air will begin dropping our temperatures prior to the daylight ending. Over the north, skies could even have breaks in the clouds allowing extremely cold temperatures to settle in. In Central New Jersey, temperatures will drop through the thirties quickly to or below freezing. In Southern New Jersey, temperatures will drop from maximums anywhere between 40 and 50, depending on where you live. What will be so critical here is determining the surface temperature and the temperature all the way from top to bottom in the column. Since temperatures could initially be above 40 degrees when the precipitation begins, it could definitely start as some rain and sleet in just about everywhere that receives precipitation tonight. It is expected, based on the “540 Line” sinking to the south on both the GFS and NAM, that even if the surface is above freezing, the temperatures to air near the surface will cool with colder air advection moving in, allowing the rain to change to sleet and wet snow, even down in Cape May County. But during this process, the heaviest precipitation may be in Cape May County, but it will be warmest here. So the greater snow totals could actually fall along a corridor of the Atlantic City Expressway. It is going to be absolutely nail biting trying to pin down this snow and sleet accumulation with transitions and warmer surface temperatures. In Northern New Jersey, at least temperatures were closer to freezing when the snow started there late last night and early this morning. With all of this in consideration, I think many areas will receive 1 to 3 inches of snow. There could be a banding situation where once it is all snow and temperatures are plunging, a localized strip could pick up 2 to 6 inches of snow. Keep in mind that an advisory criterion in this part of New Jersey is two inches and warning criteria is four inches.
Gradient wise---the cutoff will fall somewhere between Interstate 195 and Route 70. This could just be like lake-effect snow where even cities and towns have very different conditions from one end to the other.
It is worth noting that previous events (very similar) over the past two decades… where banding occurred in these areas…resulted in 8 to 12 inches in a localized strip and the other event resulted in 5-9 inches. These bands ran from York County down through Gloucester and Atlantic Counties. But again, we have mixing and a warmer ground this time. Regardless, this forecast has very high busting potential.
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