2/26/2011 Extended Forecast: Severe T-Storms Possible Monday

A clipper system is passing to our north late tonight. It will continue to be north of New Jersey for the most part. A lot of clouds are over our region and the clouds will linger into Sunday Morning. There could be some scattered snow flurries or sprinkles. A steady snow shower may develop across the Northwestern New Jersey. Otherwise, temperatures will respond to a more west-southwest flow on Sunday causing many areas to rise into the fifties.

On Monday Morning, a warm front will lift through the region. Rain will develop and possibly a thunderstorm. Initially, some sleet or freezing rain will occur in Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex [NJ] Counties. The warm front will clear much of the region and more than half of the region will enter the warm sector. While the southern areas will be more entrenched, meaning warmer temperatures, I think everyone in the immediate Philadelphia area has an opportunity to rise into the sixties if the clouds and rain clear by the afternoon hours. Right now I have 68. If the thunderstorms are indeed earlier...then 64 is more reasonable. Some of the southern counties could even rise to around seventy degrees. Meanwhile, northern areas could be stuck in the forties with periods of rain and possibly some good downpours.

The winds could really mix to the surface with the sunshine ahead of a strong evening and nighttime cold front. However, the highest winds may be reserved with a potential line of thunderstorms that will move in from the west during the evening and then again another round of gusty winds with the cold front itself. This could be more of a convective wind event, but wind advisory to high wind warning winds cannot be ruled out prior to and after the frontal passage. The wind threat can be more closely looked at on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the southern half of the region in a slight risk designation for severe weather in their day three convective outlook. I would say that is fairly significant for our region during this time of the year. The latest models from 00z seem to be faster with the convection arrival which means the chance of strong thunderstorms is increasing.