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This is still looking like a “not a big deal” type of weather event this evening. Rain overnight will intensify as the coastal storm beings to take shape off the Carolina Coastline and move northeast. The best dynamics are offshore and will shift up to New England where they should take a pounding.

So, rain, heavy at times overnight into early Friday Morning. The rain may change to wet snow showers north of the Atlantic City Expressway and most likely north of Interstate 195 during the morning hours. The worst case scenario may result in a quick slushy coating to a few inches in Central New Jersey, primarily on grassy surfaces. The best opportunity for colder air to make it this far south would be when the low pulls away. Otherwise, the models have even lowered the liquid to work with today even more, so now rainfall amounts of around three-quarters to one-inch can be expected.

Outside of the main website viewing area, some accumulating snow will occur in Northwestern New Jersey after a change from rain. AT BEST this is a moderate snow event for them, with up to six inches possible there. The late afternoon runs gave some renewed hope to allow for 5 or 6 inches to remain in the forecast up there…earlier runs this morning said even 4 inches was optimistic.

There still could be a period of gusty winds along our eastern counties. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph would be possible, especially along our coastal communities. The east-northeast flow will impact our coastal areas with spotty tidal flooding of minor severity.
As the storm pulls away, the low is expected to intensify further off the coastline of New England. The result could be a very stuff northwest wind developing. Wind gusts across the entire region may exceed 50 MPH behind the storm. Drier air will filter in, but some lingering instability and backlash could produce some snow flurries and snow showers.

Snow showers or rain showers with a clipper is possible on Saturday.

Heavy rain on Monday is possible with a warm front and wave of low pressure.

Thunderstorms, possibly severe, is possible on Tuesday on Wednesday with a mild surge of air.

I will say it again: This storm is not a big deal

I continue to maintain at this hour that this storm will be insignificant. The latest NAM and GFS modeling supports my thinking.

Moderate snow AT BEST in the Northwestern New Jersey counties under a winter storm warning; many areas under the warning would appear to receive advisory type snow if the modeling is correct.

Rainfall that won’t lead to flooding, the latest NAM and GFS indicate less than three-quarters of an inch of liquid across the state now to work with. Yes, it could be heavy at times….but it won’t flood.

Wind I think will be the biggest effect from this storm, although this won’t be the windiest coastal storm at all when it passes our latitude. Maybe gusts of past 45 MPH in our coastal counties…that is being optimistic.

Snow showers on the backside for Central NJ at this point…again I maintain it is remote and that if there was a burst…we are talking about minor accumulations.

Unfortunately, many other sources forecasted a big flood and/or significant snowstorm. Do you know how many people today at a South Jersey diner said that we were going to get big snowstorm and were asking me how much? More than 12 people in just one shot. That is why people shouldn’t get carried away with rogue runs or the use of the word “snow”. It is not everyone’s fault…some sources were accurate…but people also don’t listen and when snow is forecast for the north…they just choose the word SNOW and everyone thinks oh my goodness it is going to snow here.

Coastal Storm...But Stronger and More Impactful to Our North and East

Headlines:

Not expecting flooding except street flooding or urban and small stream flooding at most...

Winds will be strongest after the storm, but could be gusty for a time along the coast...

Snow in the NW part of the state with a moderate event at best maybe making this a "snowstorm" for them; minor elsewhere & not a big deal...not the "snowstorm" some were hinting at for the majority of the Garden State...

Periods of rain...heavy at times...but not the 2 to 4 inch amounts I heard some were going with earlier in the week....

Strong winds after the system departs and bombs out closer to New England...

The biggest development at this hour is the North American Model is now beginning to come around to the idea of a coastal storm, supporting the model partners. While the NAM still shows the most aggressive development of the low north and east of our region, we still have a measurable one-half inch to three-quarters of an inch of liquid to work with. The GFS from 00z has also backed off quite a bit of the precipitation amounts with the inch or greater amounts confined to the coast where there is sandy soil.

With this said, it is now time to rely on the European Model and Global Forecast System model since these models have been more consistent with the idea of a coastal storm of some sort, although far less consistent with the track of the low pressure center. At this point, the overall idea doesn’t change with the precipitation type. Right now the GFS model from 00z is continuing to show rain developing along with gusty winds across much of the coastal plan in New Jersey which is the majority of the site’s serving area. The rain…heavy at times…at the very end of the event may possibly mix with wet snow, if not briefly end as a burst of all wet snow. If there in fact is a change to wet snow as colder air rushes in, the best chance of this occurring is north of Interstate 195. The worst case scenario may result in a quick slushy coating to at most a few inches in Central New Jersey, primarily on grassy surfaces. The best opportunity for colder air to make it this far south would be when the low pulls away. The wildcard would be if the precipitation is so heavy that colder air rushing in initially aloft is pulled down to the ground.

Localized street flooding, urban flooding, and small stream flooding is the greatest threat if the current expected rainfall amounts of 0.75” to 1.50” are realized. Should there be 2.00” to 3.00” of rain; some flooding may begin along our larger waterways but the model runs have backed off quite a bit.

Assuming that the stronger solutions are correct on the modeling, wind gusts could pass 45 MPH in the Eastern New Jersey counties. Wind gusts could pass 50 MPH along our coastal communities. The real robust solutions would result in storm force winds along the coastal communities, but these solutions seem to be thinning in the pile rapidly with a less intense low at our latitude. The east-northeast flow will impact our coastal areas with spotty tidal flooding. Pockets of minor severity flooding are expected.

As the storm pulls away, the low is expected to intensify further off the coastline of New England. The result could be a very stuff northwest wind developing. Wind gusts across the entire region may exceed 50 MPH behind the storm. Drier air will filter in, but some lingering instability and backlash could produce some snow flurries and snow showers.

If the long range modeling is correct for Monday and Tuesday, FEMA might not be leaving New Jersey anytime soon for those along waterways.

Winter Storm Watch in North Jersey

A winter storm watch was posted a short time ago for the higher elevation counties of Northern New Jersey.

A watch implies that winter storm conditions are possible. Whether this will be upgraded to a warning remains to be seen.

Most of the snow in these areas would be as the storm wraps in colder air and pulls away. At this point, the 12z GFS showed the snow accumulation to be below warning criteria in these areas in my opinion... but the higher elevation could play a role and fool the model take.

For Central and Southern New Jersey...there are no winter products attm as this will be more liquid as frozen and my fcst/discn holds from earlier today.

Meanwhile, the 18z NAM just in does show a bit of a western trend, but still no potent coastal low for our region as of yet.

Tonight, late, I will look at the 18z GFS and the 00z runs as they come in.

Will there really be a coastal storm? Wll it snow? Will it rain?

Tonight, periods of showers will affect the southern half of the region with potential misting north. If these showers are heavy enough, they may drag colder air aloft down to the surface and change the precipitation over to wet snow. If a steady band of persistent showers develops north of the Atlantic City Expressway, some brief accumulations are possible. While temperatures in most areas with the extensive clouds may remain a degree or two above freezing, any pocket of immediate surface air that drops to 32 degrees may have to contend with some freezing drizzle. The models have already busted today on the temperatures with highs already around 50 degrees acheived in many areas... so at this point most areas will likely see liquid vs. frozen precipitation unless a real heavy t-storm could develop but I don't see that happening.

There is still a fair amount of disagreement amongst the computer modeling for Thursday Night into Friday. The potential remains for a Nor’easter according to some modeling while others show it not developing. Of the models that do show it, they have been continuing to flip flop and disagree with each other as to the exact track and strength which has huge implications with regards to wind, temperature, and precipitation type. Should we get a Nor’easter, the potential exists for heavy precipitation and strong winds.

Right now the NAM model, which has performed extremely well this winter in my opinion, is showing no major Nor’easter developing in our neck of the woods Thursday Night into Friday. The NAM model from 12z indicates the storm not rapidly developing until it nears Maine. The NAM is much slower with the energy timing.

Right now the GFS model from 12z is continuing to show torrential rain developing along with high winds across New Jersey. Potential wintry mix could occur still in Northwestern New Jersey. If this solution were accurate, some flooding and wind damage would be possible. The highest winds would be in our coastal communities with some strong winds even in the interior eastern counties. Coastal flooding is also possible with this solution. The GFS changed course from about 24 hours ago when it indicated on a few rogue and outlier runs that it would be wet snow vs. rain for much of New Jersey. I remain consistent (IF it occurs) that this will be mainly rain with the exception of Northwestern New Jersey and that elsewhere perhaps at times a few sleet pellets or wet flakes could mix in at the very onset and especially as the storm ends. There is a remote possibility of a brief burst of all wet snow as the storm ends which would accumulate on grassy surfaces, especially in Central New Jersey. I think the main concern to iron out for a forecaster at this point is to see if this storm actually doesn’t happen in our region as the NAM indicates. For the higher terrain of Northern New Jersey…this is where some heavy, wet snow or sleet hasn’t been ruled out. We shall see if flood watches or high wind watches are issued, but again there is the one reliable model saying nothing but a few snow showers or flurries.

2 Storms, Numerous Uncertainties

The first system will be affecting the region Wednesday Afternoon into early Thursday Morning. The latest computer modeling has shifted this storm northward. Still, the majority of measurable precipitation will fall south of Interstate 195. In the regions that will have the coldest temperatures in the upper atmosphere the precipitation intensity will be very light. The light intensity will make it hard for colder air aloft to drag to the lower levels of the atmosphere and this means there could be patchy drizzle instead of light snow or flurries. In areas that may see steadier precipitation, the temperatures will be warmer and despite the intensity, it may not snow but rather rain. The area to watch will be between Route 1 and the Atlantic City Expressway. Should there be heavier precipitation in this area for a few hours, after the sun settles for the night, some snow is possible and it could accumulate on grassy surfaces. Meanwhile, it will also have to be determined whether the immediate surface temperature eventually drops in Central New Jersey to the freezing mark which would allow the potential for some freezing drizzle. In Northwestern New Jersey, whatever makes it into these areas would probably be in the form of snow as here the temperatures would be cold enough in all levels regardless of the intensity.

The true forecasting nightmare arrives Thursday Night and lingers into Friday. A Nor’easter is possible. The models have been flopping on the storm track and intensity. This is critical to know for me to determine the precipitation type and air temperatures at various levels. The late afternoon GFS guidance was a bit warmer than the early morning guidance. At this point, the onset may be start as snow in the Northwest New Jersey regions with rain, possibly mixed with sleet and wet snow elsewhere. Then, it may rain for the remainder of the event in most spots before potentially ending as wet snow. There was one ominous model run of the GFS this morning which indicated the potential for a mix changing to a wet snowstorm for much of the region and for now that will be considered an outlier. Whatever precipitation falls, there appears to be a 6 to 12 hour period for it to be heavy at times and combined with strong winds. Of course you have the late afternoon NAM model which doesn’t show much of a storm at all. This portion of the forecast remains challenging and once again huge and drastic changes may be in store in future forecasts in both measurable amounts and temperature.

Red Flag Warning Again

A red flag warning is in effect for Central and Southern New Jersey from noon to 6 p.m.

Another day of increased fire danger is likely with wind gusts of 15 to 20 MPH and low humidity values.



Mid-Week Storm: The NAM and GFS from 06z have shifted northward this morning and we need to see if this trend holds for the 12z. If so, Wednesday Night into early Thursday may have some wet snow, perhaps accumulating in parts of the region.

Trickly Forecast Wednesday into Saturday

As mentioned yesterday, there have been some changes made to the extended forecast graphic. Throughout the past few months there have been some great temperature differences from Trenton to Cape May, in some cases a difference by more than twenty degrees. With expected swings from north to south expected the remainder of this spring and summer sea breezes, a change to the graphics was necessary. The top row of numbers will be the forecast for the Trenton area and the bottom numbers will be the forecast for the Cape May area. Unfortunately, there could even be some differences in between these two cities and to account for this there is yet another change. Every forecast will come with a regional weather forecast for 24 hours out. This is the best compromise that could be hammered out at this time. If you have any suggestions, please email them to doug@phillyweather.net.

The forecast for the remainder of this week is very uncertain after tomorrow night. There is confusion building for both the mid-week system and the late-week systems on the computer modeling. It all has to do with the extent of the dry and cold air now in place across our region and when this finally erodes.

I suspect Tuesday will be another party sunny day, with mostly sunny skies in some areas. With the air remaining dry and wind gusts of 10 to 20 mph, some elevated fire danger continues. Another red flag warning type day is possible. There are rumblings a fire weather watch may replace the current red flag warning when it expires. Again, our Central New Jersey counties remain fairly moist. I was walking through a field yesterday and I obtained mud on my shoes up in that region. It will also remain well below average in the temperature department, another limiting factor. So like today, I don’t see the most ideal or critical fire weather situation transpiring.

For Wednesday, there are major questions at this point. The North American Model is suppressing the area of low pressure to our south. The Global Forecast System model is now not too robust with the northward extent of this system either in the latest modeling. So, it appears Wednesday is cold, possibly mostly cloudy, and there could be some flurries or snow showers, especially towards evening or at night. Some models are suggesting the snowflakes melting in the upper levels, but not enough cold air to refreeze the drops to form sleet. Therefore, there could be some drizzle droplets. Areas, especially north of 195, could experience freezing drizzle if this was the case as below freezing temperatures may be found once again at the immediate surface. Wednesday-Wednesday Night has the potential to be much drier and see the comments at the end of this post. One high resolution model I use shows some snow bursts around Ocean and Burlington Counties around 10 p.m. Wednesday Night.

On Thursday Night into Friday, the Global Forecast System model shows a coastal storm affecting the region with a mixture of rain, sleet, wet snow, and freezing rain in Northwestern New Jersey and rain…initially starting as a mixture in some areas…elsewhere. However, should this storm “bomb out” and track a certain way as some model guidance is hinting at, the storm could potentially be colder in nature and I could see a few portions of New Jersey piling up snow if this was the case. Wind, precipitation type, surface temperatures, tidal effects, and storm track is still very uncertain.

Wednesday through Saturday could need huge and dramatic temperature and precipitation adjustments in later forecasts that I issue. Take note.

Red Flag Warning into This Evening

A red flag warning has been issued into early this evening.

Relative humidity will range from 20 to 30 percent.

Wind gusts to around 20-25 MPH.

Fine Fuels below 10 percent.

The two limiting factors is that the ground seems to be relatively moist to me so far, especially across Central New Jersey and the temperatures are fairly cold. However, should a fire begin...it would spread pretty quickly with the wind and lack of moisture in the air.

Late Week Questions

Today turned out to feature a lot more sunshine than previously anticipated as the southern storm system cleared much faster than previously expected. The extra sunshine allowed temperatures to push into the forties. Tonight, under the clear skies, temperatures should drop into the twenties area wide. Snow remains a factor in Northwestern New Jersey which could cause temperatures to drop into the teens in these regions.

With a continuing Greenland block, dry air and below average temperatures will remain in place for Monday and Tuesday. The Canadian high pressure area will gradually ease on Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

The latest computer model guidance has been hinting at a potential for a storm system for the middle of this week and perhaps a second storm system late in the week. There has been a good deal of uncertainty over which of the two storm systems would be the bigger and stronger of the two. The stronger storm some of the models hint at for Friday would require a weaker midweek storm. A stronger midweek storm would most likely limit the potential for the strong energy to develop in time for Friday. Of course strength and positioning would determine key factors such as precipitation types, wind speeds, measurable amounts, and surface temperatures. It is too early to predict all of these factors with great confidence since there is considerable uncertainty.

I’ll keep a sharp eye on the long range guidance as these two potential systems approach. The extended forecast graphic will return tomorrow as a slight modification and redesign is underway to provide greater accuracy.

Southern Brush This Weekend

A weak disturbance passing south of Trenton tonight will cause an increase in cloudiness and perhaps trigger some flurries or a snow shower. Unless something unexpected occurs, most areas should just see a few flakes in the air.

On Saturday, skies should clear by mid-morning, become sunny for a time, and then more clouds ahead of a southern storm will move in by evening. The skies will range from partly cloudy in the evening north and mostly cloudy south.

The southern storm will be passing to the south of New Jersey on Sunday. If the latest modeling is correct, there could be no measurable precipitation even in extreme southern portions of New Jersey. Glimpses of sunshine are possible north, while overcast skies are likely south. With snow cover far north, we may not see warmer temperatures despite more sunshine. Thirties appear likely in the snow covered regions north and in the overcast regions. Central New Jersey could push 40 degrees if there is sunshine. But given several factors, I am forecasting the middle thirties now for high temperatures. I will leave the chance for a southern flurry in the forecast or isolated snow showers, but at this point the chance for snowflakes is decreasing dramatically.

Slightly warmer, but still well below average temperatures will occur Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. On Wednesday, some rain is likely with the next system. There could be some mixing initially across northern sections of the state. A few models are colder and further south, which would introduce more widespread mixing chances.

Snow Sunday?

This morning, all eyes will focus on a southern storm system moving towards the East Coast of the United States this weekend. The late night computer modeling shows that the steady precipitation staying south of New Jersey. Some snow showers or flurries could brush extreme portions of Southern New Jersey according to the latest information, but that is it.

Of course this winter has been full of northern and western trends. Therefore, one may need to watch for a northern shift within the next 24 to 48 hours. Cold, Canadian High Pressure to our north will be the key in blocking the storm with a cold, dry air mass.

While we may not get steady snow, especially south of Interstate 195, clouds will hang tough. Sunday could be a fairly cold day and later extended forecast graphics I develop may have high temperatures in the mid-thirties. Even if the steadier precipitation shifts further to the north, temperatures may still be cold enough for snow to be the precipitation type.

Clearing Skies

The terrifying tornado in Western Pennsylvania covered in an earlier post today has now been rated an EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. An ominous photograph has surfaced this afternoon, courtesy of the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh. 146 tornadoes have been recorded in New Jersey since 1950. Now, 740 tornadoes have been recorded in Pennsylvania. Some tornadoes are of higher impact because of what they impact and how long their path of destruction is. In this case, the path length was 7 miles.

Otherwise, you can see on the satellite imagery that sunshine has been slowly increasing to our north. It will likely not reach into portions of Southern New Jersey before the sun sets this evening. This means the day will go down as overcast in the portions of the south. Friday at this point will have some sporadic clouds.



The picture for the week is beginning to become clearer. It appears as though a wave of low pressure will pass to our south on Sunday. Clouds will increase on Saturday Evening and Sunday should be mostly cloudy. Some of the models are suggesting some precipitation brushing our southern counties on Sunday and with cold air entrenched and a storm track so far south, what does fall may be in the form of wet snow or sleet. We will need to watch any northward progression of the storm system which could result in a more widespread impacting event, but perhaps a slightly warmer one.

Wild Weather in Mid-Atlantic

Take everyone in the office and pull them together and watch some of the video links below the writing in this post... of the hail and severe weather. Downright awesome. . .

It has been tough to clear the overcast skies this morning. The satellite imagery is suggesting some breaks beginning to develop to our north and settling down into New Jersey. I suspect some peaks of sunshine to develop with clearing throughout the afternoon from northwest to southeast.

Meanwhile, I wanted to talk about a probable tornado yesterday in Western Pennsylvania in Westmoreland County. More than 30 homes were damaged, some severely. Some schools were even damaged in this incident. Tornadoes can cause severe damage and injury, even in the Middle-Atlantic States. I can’t stress enough the importance of school district officials practicing and implementing tornado safety drills. It should not be just a “mid-west thing”.





There were five injuries with this tornado according to media sources. The severe thunderstorm that prompted this likely tornado took the shape of a well-defined hook. The radar image clearly shows the hook shape. Thankfully, watches were issued well in advanced of this tornado with amble opportunity after a tornado warning was issued. More importantly, this incident demonstrates why tornado watches and severe thunderstorm watches should be taken seriously, before the warning phase. The watches imply conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather.
Some even get distressed when warnings require such emphasis on television with special interruptions into regular programming. Tornadoes can cause severe damage and injury, even in the Middle-Atlantic States. Be gracious that your television station puts safety first and take the suggestions actions.

Hail was appearing so likely across Pennsylvania and New Jersey yesterday by mid-morning, and I made mention of it before the afternoon began. The large hail though was out in Western Pennsylvania where greater instability developed where temperatures spiked to around 65 degrees. That also explains why the storms were able to rotate there to spin up funnels.

Videos of Hail:

http://www.wtae.com/weather/27303144/detail.html



More Tornado Video

Sleet and Wet Snow Showers

The current radar imagery shows that the heavy, steady precipitation is out over the ocean.

However, pockets of sleet and snow showers are entering New Jersey once again from the west and this will be the trend through the morning commute. Some of the steadier pockets may coat the grassy surfaces, with the potential for even roads to be coated in Northwest New Jersey.

A winter weather advisory remains in effect for North and Central New Jersey with winter storm warnings in the three northwestern counties of NJ.

Thunderstorms Move Across Central and Southern New Jersey

Update: Central.New Jersey now under a winter weather advisory

Update: The NWS has placed all of NE New Jersey now under a winter wx advisory for snow, sleet, and freezing drizzle late tonight-Thursday Morning.

Very strong thunderstorms...near severe limits...are now in Southeastern New Jersey. These storms look ready to cause quite a bit of hail, in addition to strong wind gusts. Thunderstorms have knocked out power to some in Southern New Jersey according to Atlantic City Electric. 299 people as of 8:35 p.m. were reported to have no power. The most were in Gloucester and Salem Counties.

Meanwhile, pea-sized hail and even sleet has been reported in areas from about Route 287 and Route 1 and points south with some scattered thunderstorms.

South Jersey Thunderstorms

Strong thunderstorms with pea to nickel sized hail is quite possible. Look at the line that has rapidly developed in South Jersey.

A few isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail (quarter sized hail) and even damaging wind gusts is not out of the question.

It appears frequent lightning may occur with these storms.

Meanwhile, snow and sleet is starting to impact northern portions of New Jersey again.

Different Weather Conditions Across NJ Tonight-Thursday AM

All eyes are on an area of low pressure across the Ohio River Valley that is projected to move eastward this evening. Numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms have developed along the corridor in which the low pressure area is moving and this activity will move eastward. Low-topped convection is likely later tonight into early Thursday Morning. With a low freezing level, despite marginal instability, some of the thunderstorms have the potential to produce hailstones. Some of the hail could be of penny or nickel size in the strongest thunderstorms. I have noticed the recent severe thunderstorm watch issuance for portions of Central Pennsylvania, where it is only 40-45 degrees for an air temperature. By Pittsburgh where the storms are right now it is 60-68 degrees. It may be possible some of the hailstones reach quarter size which would be the threshold for a severe thunderstorm classification. The best chance for thunderstorms is south of the Interstate 195 corridor. With temperatures so cold however, lack of sunshine, and night arrival of the storms…I am hopeful the thunderstorms will be isolated in nature. This will be an evolving situation. It wouldn't shock me if a warm slot of 50 degree air suddenly pushed into South Jersey ahead of the front...that is just another factor to watch...

Otherwise, the additional showers moving eastward will move into the colder air in Northern and Central New Jersey. This will allow for periods of wet snow and sleet, possibly mixing with rain. In Northwestern New Jersey, this will be all wet snow. It should be noted that the NAM is still indicating (although not as aggressive) a brief period of wet snow in areas north of the Atlantic City Expressway on Thursday Morning. A period of wet snow and sleet is possible in these areas, but everything has to fit in line perfectly.

A large spread is on the computer modeling for this weekend and early next week with regards to two separate storm systems. Mixed precipitation or snow is possible should there be measurable precipitation.

Midday Update on the Latest Storm

Sussex, Warren, and Morris County remain under winter storm warnings. The winter weather advisories that were in place around the warned counties have been cancelled. Warren and Morris County were added overnight. The evening into early morning round may prompt additional statements.

Snowfall totals were significant so far in Northwestern New Jersey.

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WERTSVILLE 2.9 914 AM 3/23
WHITEHOUSE STATION 2.4 705 AM 3/23
LEBANON 2.1 614 AM 3/23
BETHLEHEM TWP 2.0 633 AM 3/23
FLEMINGTON 1.6 818 AM 3/23

...MERCER COUNTY...
WEST WINDSOR TWP 1.0 535 AM 3/23
HIGHTSTOWN 0.5 846 AM 3/23

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
METUCHEN 1.8 511 AM 3/23
EDISON 1.7 505 AM 3/23

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
MANASQUAN 0.4 817 AM 3/23

...MORRIS COUNTY...
MILTON 7.5 750 AM 3/23
MARCELLA 7.5 629 AM 3/23
FLANDERS 6.5 805 AM 3/23
RANDOLPH TWP 6.5 559 AM 3/23
LAKE HOPATCONG 6.3 604 AM 3/23
GREEN POND 5.5 804 AM 3/23
JEFFERSON TWP 5.0 630 AM 3/23
ROCKAWAY 4.5 430 AM 3/23
LONG VALLEY 4.0 448 AM 3/23
BOONTON 2.0 910 AM 3/23
STIRLING 1.9 605 AM 3/23

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
POTTERSVILLE 2.5 819 AM 3/23
HILLSBOROUGH TWP 2.2 644 AM 3/23
BRIDGEWATER TWP 2.0 630 AM 3/23
SOMERVILLE 1.5 800 AM 3/23

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
FREDON 8.0 822 AM 3/23
SPARTA 6.0 707 AM 3/23
LAFAYETTE TWP 4.0 914 AM 3/23
NEWTON 3.8 710 AM 3/23
WANTAGE 1.8 749 AM 3/23

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 5.0 500 AM 3/23
HACKETTSTOWN 3.5 702 AM 3/23
STEWARTSVILLE 2.8 756 AM 3/23
LIBERTY TWP 2.3 539 AM 3/23
PHILLIPSBURG 2.0 845 AM 3/23



This afternoon and tonight, the models are indicating additional precipitation moving into the region. There remains a concern that once again we could have periods of snow and sleet, possibly mixed with rain north of Interstate 195. North of Interstate 78 and 280, it may not mix with rain at all. This leaves the door open to possible additional snow accumulation. If this is the case, some of the higher elevations may see final storm totals in excess of one foot. In addition, the chance remains for colder air to filter as far south as the Atlantic City Expressway on Thursday Morning making any lingering precipitation turn back to sleet and wet snow. By the morning commute, the lingering precipitation should be more scattered but all locations could be supportive of daytime flurries and snow showers.

The warm sector remains well to the south of the region. Georgetown, Delaware is currently at 44 degrees. Locations north of the Atlantic City Expressway are in the middle and upper thirties, with even colder readings in Northern New Jersey. The warm sector could potentially lift into Extreme Southern New Jersey throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Should any of these areas get into the warm sector of the front, some temperature increase may occur which could lead to some greater instability supportive of severe thunderstorms. Currently, the slight risk designation of severe weather is in Delaware and this makes sense given how far South Jersey would have to go to overcome the current air mass. Meanwhile, radar trends out to the west show the possibility of convection even reaching into the colder, more stable areas north of the warm sector although the echoes are not the most impressive. Therefore, some low-topped convection is possible, especially south of Interstate 195. With the freezing layer relatively low, any thunderstorm has the potential to produce some hail regardless of where it forms. The higher chances of larger hail are south where a greater potential for updrafts exist. Furthermore, more aggressive convection may form late this afternoon across West Virginia and Kentucky that has the potential to survive and clip our southern areas late tonight.

Quick Update on The Wintry Wx North, Rain/Sleet South

No changes were made to the advisory or warning area by the National Weather Service.

It is currently 40 degrees at the Morristown Municipal Airport. The dew point was 28 degrees and rising with the increase in moisture. The dew point will be slow to rise, so as the precipitation begins to fill in and become steadier, the temperatures will drop to the dew point value which would likely be around 34-37 during the start of the heavier precipitation. We call this evaporative cooling.

It won't drop to 28 degrees for an air temperature though since the dew point will rise with the increasing moisture...

The 00z NAM is much warmer than the previous NAM runs. The chances for this ending as snow, after a change to rain, with the second piece of energy would appear to be dwindling even further from this morning. The ending still needs to be watched carefully.

Steady band of snow appears to be developing...mixed with sleet and rain in Northern New Jersey...and again as this picks up...it will switch to snow.

Band around Maryland and Delaware is more broken...southern areas will see mainly rain, but even a few snowflakes or sleet pellets are possible here.

It looks like a damp, miserable day is arriving with a tease of snow.

Spring Season Mixture, For Others Just Damp

Passaic and Sussex Counties have been placed under a winter storm warning. Bergen, Hunterdon, Somerset, Warren, and Morris Counties have been placed under winter weather advisories.

Precipitation will likely develop by daybreak into the mid-morning hours. Initially, it may be light enough for it to just be some light drizzle or misting. I am still expecting a burst of heavier precipitation as the first low pressure system rides along a stalled frontal boundary to our south. The heavier burst of precipitation could drag colder air down through the column. The result will be rain mixing with wet snow and sleet at times.

In Northern and Central New Jersey, there is the potential for enough cold air to be pulled near the surface for a total changeover to wet snow. The colder North American Model continues to suggest that it will remain wet snow, possibly mixed with sleet once this happens north of Interstate 195. Other high-resolution modeling and the Global Forecast System modeling shows warmer air eventually taking back over. My thinking is that even if the precipitation type remains wet snow, air temperatures at ground-level will rise a few degrees above freezing during the daytime hours and the strong late March solar radiation will go to work preventing large amounts of accumulation. I think in most of North and Central New Jersey, an inch or two of slush could occur with the worst case scenario in the morning hours. Higher elevations and Northwestern New Jersey could see amounts as high as four to six inches during the morning and afternoon. Additional snow accumulation is possible at night into Thursday Morning should there be a second piece of energy which energizes the original low. Meanwhile, in South Jersey, this is mainly rain for the morning and afternoon with a bit of mixture and if the air is warm enough…even portions of Central New Jersey could end up being mainly rain.

A second piece of energy will develop Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning. This will reenergize the initial low offshore. The result will be colder air coming back into the areas that switched from snow to rain during the midday hours. Even southern areas may eventually end as some wet snow and sleet. The latest 18z NAM model has backed off on the extent of backend snow and colder air and brings the possibility of a heavy burst of snow as the storm ends down into Central New Jersey and possibly the northern portions of Southern New Jersey. Meanwhile, none of the other models really show robust development with the second piece of energy. Anyone living north of the Atlantic City Expressway should keep an eye on the developments tomorrow morning for the second piece of energy as the NAM has had fairly good credibility this winter.

Colder air aloft on the remainder of Thursday could cause several pockets of snow showers and flurries and bubble up quite a bit of clouds after a few peaks of sunshine behind the morning precipitation. It may also be blustery.

More storminess, potentially frozen precipitation, is possible over the weekend. Temperatures will be running well below the average high of around 53-54 degrees for late March.

Update on the Wintry Weather Threat

No real big changes.

A winter storm watch was issued about 3 hours after my early morning post for Northwestern New Jersey. This area will see wet snow much during this event, perhaps mixed with sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon before changing back to wet snow.

Otherwise, we need to watch closely whether the NAM model is correct about a heavy burst of snow even in portions of Southern New Jersey during Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning. The National Weather Service may eventually need a watch for this part of the storm as the criteria is 4" of snow or more, lower than Northern and Central New Jersey where the criteria is 6".

I'll have a complete update later this evening.

Check the new promo. The end is cut off, but there was a good ending.

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Snow in Late March Possible in New Jersey?

Wednesday and Thursday is looking potentially very problematic. A late March winter storm could very well be approaching the region. This is a low confidence forecast.

The first in a series of waves moving along a stalled cold front to our south on Wednesday Morning should cause enhancement of the precipitation along and to the north of the boundary. The 00z NAM model shows a real struggle to fight off the colder air despite stronger radiation from the increased sunlight this time of the year. The result could be a period of wet snow and sleet as far south as northern sections of Southern New Jersey. The wet snow may hold for several hours if there is heavy precipitation as colder air aloft could be dragged down the entire column. This system is looking much colder than the event on Monday on this model, which brought one to five inches of snow to Northwestern New Jersey. Several inches of wet snow and sleet may fall at the onset of the event with even winter storm accumulations in Northern and North-Central New Jersey according to the NAM. After the accumulations seen with a warmer looking type of event, this tells me it can snow and accumulate despite Friday’s warmth. The roadways will be above freezing for the most part, so it will be the grass that sees the highest totals. Meanwhile, the GFS shows rain in much of the region, with snow and sleet in Northern New Jersey. To me, the GFS is too warm. More on this down further.

The NAM model does not show the “540 Line” budging much throughout the day in Central and Northern New Jersey. If the colder air holds, that wet snow and sleet may never have a chance at changing completely over to liquid rain in this area. It may rise above freezing at the surface which has the power to prevent accumulations at least. The high resolution modeling does want to show at least liquid making it to the Interstate 195 corridor. Where snow cover develops, there may even be the potential for some brief freezing rain in the Northwest New Jersey counties.

The wave of low pressure may reenergize according to the NAM Wednesday Night into Thursday or even a secondary, stronger low may develop. This has the potential to drag down even colder air into the system as well as giving it additional energy to intensify the precipitation rates. The result could be to drop the temperatures several degrees and change any liquid or mixture to wet snow. Accumulating snow may develop even in Southern New Jersey with several inches not out of the question according to the North American Model. The GFS doesn’t have this sort of intensification of the low and therefore just doesn’t give us much measurable precipitation at all, even if it was warm enough for rain.

The Global Forecast System model has been warmer throughout the course of the last few days with regards to this event and has also featured less measurable precipitation amounts. But the North American Model has been far more accurate this winter and nailed the morning Northwestern New Jersey snow amounts.

More wet snow and rain is quite possible late in the weekend. The GFS is a long range model; and unfortunately the NAM just doesn’t go out this far. However, even the GFS is suggesting frozen precipitation with this event perhaps being more dominant than liquid.

Search the February archives for the write up on the winter. Look for a phrase that mentions how we could end up in a pattern where it reaches 70 degrees one day and then 48 hours later it is snowing. I think this prediction is ending up dead on.

Not the Greatest Week Ahead

Sussex County is under a winter weather advisory for possible accumulating snow of a few inches around the morning commute. The highest chances are in the higher elevations of this county.

Elsewhere, even into North-Central New Jersey some wet snow could briefly happen for an hour as the warm air advection precipitation moves in. Also, some heavier shower bursts in the entire region could drag some colder air down to cause some sleet pellets to mix in. Temperatures will be tricky as advecting warmth would cause temperatures rises...BUT evaporative cooling will initially cause a drop once the precipitation begins in parts of the region.

By morning, except the Poconos most areas should just be wet. Roadways will defintely be wet regardless of grassy accumulations in the northern areas.

T-storm chance appears isolated for now in South Jersey as temperatures rises to near 60 could occur in the warm sector. The high-resolution models just don't show the moisture with a cold front...despite some potential instability. This will need to be watched however.

Tuesday now appears dry. However, I still think there will be variable cloudiness. Temperatures behind the cold front will not cool right away as cold air advection lags behind by a day.

The cold front will stall south of our region and become a train track for waves of low pressure to develop along the boundary. If the front moves far enough south, but yet not too far south to cause drier air to hold in place suppressing the moisture, we could have precipitation combine with air just cold enough for frozen precipitation. With the system so far out, more than a mention of mixed precipitation wouldn’t do the situation any justice.

Canadian high pressure on Thursday and Friday will make it feel quite chilly in our region. With some leaves and flowers fooled by the recent warm spell, frost and freezes Thursday Night and Friday may pose some trouble. I am not sure if the growing season has officially begun for many, but the frost and freeze is worth a mention to some interested parties.

Damp, Cooler Week Ahead

The sunshine will be abundant early on Sunday, followed by increase clouds as the sun sets in the evening.

A warm front will approach the region late Sunday Night and on Monday Morning. A round of rain is anticipated with the warm front pushing across the region. There could even be a few scattered thunderstorms since warm fronts love to become more active at night. Some cold air aloft could allow for some sleet or even hail to occur with the thunderstorms or really any of the heavier showers that can transport this colder air to the surface. Across Northern New Jersey, some wet snow could mix with the rain or even change to wet snow for a time should the precipitation be heavy enough to drag below freezing temperatures down through the entire column. For now, I will watch with caution the 18z NAM model which would show some pretty decent accumulations of snow and sleet in Northern New Jersey and Northeastern Pennsylvania with some light accumulation the next tier south of these points. The 00z NAM was not as bulliish with the snow ahead of the warm sector The ground up to the north is quite warm and would at least initially melt the snow, let alone the borderline temperatures. Of course, we have had a few events since 2006 proving that it can be near 70 one day and snowing with measurable amounts a few days later. Yes, there has been accumulating snow even into the month of April so while it is unlikely the more and more into spring we get, it is not impossible.

The warm front may have some difficulty exiting our northern forecast area on Monday; especially should there be some snow that falls. Meanwhile, the clouds may break leading to a temperature surge in Southern New Jersey, Southeastern Pennsylvania, and Delaware. If this happens, some instability could develop quickly and temperatures will respond upward to the increased sunshine. As a cold front approaches later on Monday, some scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop. The sunshine could also cause a decent breeze to develop at the surface. Quite a contrast may develop between Sussex and Cape May. Behind the cold front, it will take some time for the colder air to settle into place. This is why Tuesday will still be relatively mild.

The cold front will stall south of our region and become a train track for waves of low pressure to develop along the boundary. If the front moves far enough south, but yet not too far south to cause drier air to hold in place suppressing the moisture, we could have precipitation combine with air just cold enough for frozen precipitation. With the system so far out, more than a mention of mixed precipitation wouldn’t do the situation any justice.

Canadian high pressure on Thursday and Friday will make it feel quite chilly in our region. With some leaves and flowers fooled by the recent warm spell, frost and freezes Thursday Night and Friday may pose some trouble. I am not sure if the growing season has officially begun for many, but the frost and freeze is worth a mention to some interested parties.

Temperature Plunge Expected

Many record high temperatures have been exceeded or tied today. Newark and Trenton reached the lower eighties, higher than model guidance expectations offered yesterday. Even more interesting is that the locations that came within the 80 degree territory did not have a southwest wind, but rather a west-northwest wind component. Usually a northwest wind would drag cooler air down into our metro region. It was a perfect day to go outside and enjoy your break time. I spent the day with some friends today and during their break the warmth brought out the first wasps and bees of the season.

A dry cold front moved through earlier this afternoon. A weak wave of low pressure will pass through along the front late tonight into Saturday Morning. The models have all come into agreement that little precipitation will fall with this disturbance. However, with a sharp contrast behind the front and temperatures performing better than the guidance has suggested, some instability will exist for potential of some showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. I will continue to keep my slight, isolated chance of a late night and early morning thunderstorm. Most areas will primarily see an increase in cloud cover. Saturday will be much cooler, with highs in the middle fifties. The high temperature maximums in the upper fifties or lower sixties may occur very early in the morning.

Sunshine will be abundant on Sunday Morning, with high clouds later Sunday Evening. Sunday Night will be mostly cloudy. A warm front will lift northward on Monday. The models have not been too aggressive with the precipitation amounts, but overtime this may change. As we approach spring, warm fronts can sometimes be more active with thunderstorms. I’ll watch this potential closely.

Tuesday will likely be mild as the warm front lifts north. A cold front will move in late on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, the front pulls southward and much of the Garden State goes into the cooler air. A wave of low pressure may possibly form on the frontal boundary. If this is the case, the air behind the front could be supportive of wintry precipitation in at least some parts of New Jersey. Temperatures may plunge below normal at the end of next week.

Trenton and Newark Exceeds Temperature Expectations

As of 2:55 p.m., Trenton and Newark reached 80 degrees for a temperature so far. My forecast as of yesterday evening for a high was 76 degrees (higher than any other source).

Other areas are sitting between 74-79 degrees.

Windy and Warm Friday

A very mild day is anticipated on Friday, the warmest day thus far of 2010 and the warmest day since October. 78 degrees is the record high temperature average across Central and Southern New Jersey. Many areas could be within three to four degrees of that number. A warm front will push through in the morning and some areas may start out mostly cloudy. If the warm front lifts northward as expected, the sunshine should come out relatively quickly allowing for a continuous surge in temperatures. Widespread maximums in the lower and mid-seventies would be likely if the clouds lift away. Some of the more aggressive models have been suggesting upper seventies for high temperatures. The bottom line is that this will be a perfect day for an outdoor break. There will be sufficient mixing as the sunshine comes out and therefore strong surface winds can be expected. Wind gusts may frequently gust between 30 and 45 MPH at times. This could knock a few branches down. The ground remains relatively moist, so while the wind and warmth will dry the immediate surface, fire danger does not appear to be excessively high at this moment. However, should flames be ignited, the warmth and wind could still fan the flames to some degree.

A cold front is expected to arrive late Friday Night and Saturday Morning. The computer models have been in disagreement on a wave of low pressure developing along the front. Some models indicate it developing and others do not have it at all. I have mentioned all week that moisture would be scarce and despite mild temperatures leading to some instability, the showers and thunderstorms cannot develop without sufficient moisture. I have moved the timing of any possible thunderstorm or shower until early Saturday Morning and I will keep the activity at isolated levels for now. The early morning arrival of any energy would also tend to mean reduced instability with no sunshine.

Monday looks to be mostly cloudy with showers likely. A warm front will lift northward. The models have not been too aggressive with the precipitation amounts, but overtime this may change. As we approach spring, warm fronts can sometimes be more active with thunderstorms. I’ll watch this potential closely. Tuesday through Thursday remains a challenging forecast with a backdoor cold front and waves of low pressure. Heck, some areas on the colder side of the front could be dealing with wintry precipitation while it could be quite balmy on the other side!

3.2" of snow is the March average.

Very Balmy on Friday

76 on Friday looks very possible. The records sit between 78 and 82 degrees.

A very nice day overall is expected on Thursday. A few clouds will be around as a warm front approaches the region. Then a very mild day on Friday, quite balmy in fact! Highs will be in the middle seventies with a strong southerly flow. A cold front on Friday Night has the potential to bring a few scattered thunderstorms. The big question is how widespread these thunderstorms will be as moisture may be somewhat limited.

Clouds will be around on Saturday Morning with a lingering shower or thunderstorm as the front slows down some as it moves east-southeast. Sunday will be sunny early and cloudy later as yet again another system approaches our area. Monday will likely be showery at this point. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week look quite problematic from a forecast standpoint. A backdoor cold front could make for some significant temperature contrasts over a difference of 20 miles.

3/15/2011 Extended Forecast

Clouds will be increasing this evening ahead of an area of low pressure that will be riding along a cold front boundary. Rain will likely develop, with possible thunderstorms. Areas of Southern New Jersey have the potential to enter the warm sector of the low pressure area. If this is the case, there could be quite a bit of deep layer shear, or wind moving in different directions in different parts of the atmosphere. There could potentially be some low-level hodographs as well which can be indicative of tornado activity. The high resolution models have been indicating a convective look to this storm system since the weekend. My problem is finding sufficient instability this early in the morning, especially during the month of March. Based on the high-resolution modeling indicating the potential for thunderstorms, I am comfortable with leaving thunderstorms in the forecast. The thunderstorm threat will dependent on the low pressure track and it is a bit difficult to determine whether it will pass just west…over us…or just east of the Garden State. This clearly makes a difference. The low confidence part of the forecast is the potential for damaging winds or a tornado. This will be highly dependent on instability and how far the area gets into the warm sector prior to the cold front. The chances are minimal, but not impossible after analyzing the data.

Rainfall should average 0.50” to 0.75” across our area. This amount, if in actuality, will not be enough for flooding in most areas. The one EXCEPTION will be the Passaic River Basin. With these waterways at or above capacity, even 0.25” of rain will renew the flooding here to at least some levels. Thunderstorms have the potential to produce localized amounts in excess of an inch and although not widespread, this is another reason thunderstorms are of a concern Wednesday Morning. A flood watch was posted Morris County into Northeastern New Jersey due to the Passaic River basin. A BIG NOTE here is that the 12z GFS did indicate 1.00” to 1.25” right over Western New Jersey and if this solution were to be actuality, then we would be talking about stream and creek problems in a bit of a more expansive area.

Thursday will be much warmer, behind the cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Highs should reach well into the sixties. On Friday, a strong southerly flow will push temperatures into the lower seventies over a widespread area with some middle seventies. A cold front will arrive Friday Night. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible and with the warmth, instability should be present. Between now and then, a good moisture source for the front will have to be located to result in sufficient convection formation.

3/14/2011 Extended Forecast

We started off with abundant sunshine today, but a weak disturbance was able to find enough moisture to pop-up clouds. Skies should clear this evening. The clouds have also impacted temperatures and therefore we just were not able to reach 50 degrees. On Tuesday, I think we should see a bit more sunshine, especially early.

Clouds take over on Tuesday Night with an approaching cold front that will have a wave of low pressure ride along it. The southern energy should help push rain into our region late on Tuesday Night. The rain will be falling overnight and the high resolution modeling indicates the heaviest rain and even a few thunderstorms between 3:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. The modeling indicates clouds breaking for sunshine by noon on Wednesday. So obviously the start time of this and end time has been moved up some. One thing to watch will be if the front itself lags behind and the sun breaks out briefly ahead of it. That would result in a squall line. One-half inch to three-quarters of an inch look to be widespread rainfall amounts, although a thunderstorm could produce locally heavier rainfall.

Additional, renewed flooding is possible along the Passaic River. It won’t take too much to tip these areas over the banks again since flooding is still ongoing. Elsewhere, despite some heavy rainfall, I think we can squeeze by. Should the rain be heavier than predicted, in excess of 1.00”, problems would begin for numerous creeks and streams. Those that live along waterways need to monitor the latest conditions and forecasts since it such a close call.

Milder weather moves in on Friday, despite the passing cold front on Thursday. By Friday, a nice southerly flow will allow temperatures to surge past 70 degrees in some portions of the area. A cold front arrives later in the day and has the potential to cause thunderstorms to fire up.

Disturbance Throws Clouds Our Way

A disturbance this morning has a little more oomph it than the computer model guidance was suggesting. It has been able to find enough moisture to produce an area of clouds. Even a few sprinkles or flurries have been reported.
Variable cloudiness is expected for the rest of the day, with perhaps some clearing, especially south of Interstate 195.

Wednesday Rain, Late Week Warmth and T-storm

Today and Tuesday look tranquil at this point. Highs will be in the upper forties and lower fifties. Winds will be relatively light.

Another low pressure area will impact our region on Wednesday. There is now high confidence that this system will deliver another measurable rainfall to New Jersey. The model guidance over the past three cycles has been consistent with a widespread 0.50” to 0.75” of rainfall. Under normal circumstances, we would be able to handle this rain. I think South Jersey will be squeaking by. However, with waterways in Northern New Jersey not receding below flood stage until Tuesday, this rain could once again cause waterways to rise above capacity, particularly the Passaic River Basin. It would take as little as 0.25” to renew flooding in this area. Meanwhile, the low pressure area doesn’t appear to be real strong or particularly organized and therefore it appears that the winds will not be a factor this time. There appears to be a bit of a convective look to the precipitation on the models, but the thunderstorm chances will be limited by the lack of sunshine.

A significant warm spell will likely develop Thursday and especially on Friday. Highs could approach 70 degrees in Central and Southern New Jersey if things work out perfectly. Some of the more aggressive modeling even wants to show the middle seventies for maximum temperatures at the surface. For now, 70 degrees seems reasonable this far out. A cold front on Friday Evening may bring showers and thunderstorms, especially if we see highs around 70 degrees.

3/11/2011 Extended Forecast

As a reminder, set your clocks AHEAD one hour before you go to sleep. “Spring FORWARD” is the classic saying when we move the clocks ahead. Yes, this means we will be losing an hour of sleep. 2:00 a.m. will jump to 3:00 a.m. Below, is a post from Tom on the time change… I will use this moment to remind those with battery-operated smoke and carbon monoxide detectors to replace the batteries.

Skies should become mostly cloudy into the early morning hours as a weak cold front slides through our region. It could produce a sprinkle or an isolated rain shower, but most areas will remain dry. As the sun rises, sufficient mixing should begin to occur with so-called cold air advection behind the front. Therefore, windy conditions will develop with wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH possible. Under normal circumstances, these wind gusts would only knock down just a few twigs at most. However, the ground is very saturated from the recent excessive rains and isolated trees may fall with the expected wind gusts. A secondary cold front will arrive late Sunday and at worst may cause a few clouds to appear.

Monday and Tuesday will be quite. A few clouds may develop Tuesday Evening and Tuesday Night ahead of our next storm system. Highs will be in the lower fifties. It may be cooler north and warmer to the south. If any day is a bust, it is Monday when highs could just fall short of 50 degrees.

Confidence is increasing that there will be some precipitation on Wednesday. The American models are beginning to agree with the foreign models that southern energy will turn northeastward from the Southeastern United States on Tuesday. Then the energy will impact us on Wednesday. The American models are just beginning to pick up on this energy and have yet to develop a very potent or organized storm system. Still, it is looking increasingly likely that Wednesday with be mostly cloudy or completely overcast with a period or periods of rain. With ongoing flooding in Northern and Central New Jersey, some waterways will not even be able to handle an additional one-quarter to one half inch of rain without rising over capacity. Elsewhere, amounts of an inch or two would cause flooding due to the previous two super soakers during the past seven days. Those along rivers, creeks, and streams should monitor the latest forecasts on the potential for measurable rain. Of course, a stronger system could cause wind which may result in tidal problems. There is a lot to hammer out in the next few days prior to the event.

Another cold front will approach on Friday Night, after a decent southerly flow could push temperatures into the seventies prior to the frontal passage. If we do see those mild temperatures, the cold front could not only produce showers, but possibly some thunderstorms. This part of the forecast though is dependent on the strength of the mid-week system. A freshly soaked ground or a northwest flow behind a stronger low would create cooler than expected weather conditions. Therefore, extended forecast confidence is below average.

3/11/2011 Extended Forecast: Lingering Flooding

Heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy rainfall on Thursday into early this morning has caused widespread flooding related problems across New Jersey, continuing the State of Emergency. Previous snow melt from a very well above average winter snowfall has also combined with the recent rains to allow waterways to be above the average heights. In addition, significant melting snowpack and rain across Northeastern Pennsylvania and New York is also draining downstream. Finally, tidal affects yesterday and this morning has also contributed to higher water levels. With this said, based on the flooding around the Passaic River, Northern New Jersey certainly didn’t escape the worst of this storm. Unfortunately, some of these areas have been under water now for nearly six days since the Sunday heavy rains.

The Passaic River near Millington affecting Morris and Sussex Counties is under a flood warning. The Passaic River near Chatham affecting Morris and Somerset Counties is under a flood warning. The Passaic River near Pine Brook affecting Essex, Morris, and Passaic Counties is under a flood warning. The Passaic River near Little Falls affecting Essex and Passaic Counties is under a flood warning. The Ramapo River near Pompton Lakes affecting Bergen, Morris, and Passaic Counties is under a flood warning. The Rockaway River near Boonton affecting Morris County is under a flood warning. The Pequannock River near the Macopin Dam affecting Morris and Passaic Counties is under a flood warning. The Wanaque River affecting Passaic County is under a flood warning. Major flooding to historical flooding is forecast for this location and is already occurring in many areas. The crest or highest water levels are expected Saturday Morning before very slowly falling.

The Delaware River near Tocks Island affecting Sussex, Warren, and Morris Counties is under a flood warning. The Delaware River near Phillipsburg affecting Hunterdon and Warren Counties is under a flood warning. The Delaware River at Riegelsville affecting Hunterdon and Mercer counties is under a flood warning. The Delaware River at Frenchtown affecting Hunterdon County is under a flood warning. The Delaware River at Stockton affecting Hunterdon County is under a flood warning. The Delaware River at Lambertville affecting Mercer and Hunterdon Counties is under a flood warning. The Delaware River at Trenton affecting Mercer County is under a flood warning. Minor flooding is forecast for these locations, with a continued slow rise expected into Saturday Morning.

The Millstone River near Blackwells Mills is under a flood warning. Minor flooding is forecast for this location, with a continued slow rise expected into Saturday Morning.
The South Branch of the Raritan near Stanton affecting Hunterdon and Somerset Counties is under a flood warning. The Raritan River near Manville affecting Middlesex and Somerset Counties is under a flood warning. The Raritan River near Bound Brook affecting Middlesex and Somerset Counties is under a flood warning. Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast.

Areal flood warnings remain in effect for Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon Somerset, Mercer, and Middlesex Counties for urban and small streams in these counties that don’t have official flood gauges and specified stages.

Next up is the Tsunami in Japan that resulted from the 8.9 magnitude earthquake. The earthquake was the fifth largest in recorded history and the largest ever to affect Japan. The tsunami was so powerful that it caused a swirl to form offshore. Tsunami coastal flooding occurs with little warning near the quake epicenter and can be extremely powerful with currents and rise to great heights. It is worse than even a flash flood. While this doesn’t affect New Jersey directly, I myself have friends in Japan (serving our great country) that have New Jersey residency. Obviously, it is a catastrophic disaster. The scenes and footage of cars, homes, and excessive amounts of debris washing away is just impressive to look at.

Now for the New Jersey forecast. A weak cold front will move through Saturday Night, bringing a few sprinkles or an isolated shower. The next potential problem will be during the middle of the week. There is strong disagreement amongst the computer model guidance. Some models are showing a weak front moving through our region, while others show a front with an area of low pressure moving up into the Middle Atlantic area. Obviously, the second option would bring concerns of additional heavy rains and flooding. Currently, with very low confidence, a chance of rain will be in my extended forecast with a mostly cloudy icon. Overall, with the days becoming longer the chances for strong cold outbreaks or snowy weather is diminishing. In fact, the temperatures appear to be above average during much of the period with a more significant warm-up anticipated late in the week. Even behind yesterday’s cold front and low to our northeast, the westerly flow has been unable to cause our temperatures to drop into the forties for highs.

Change the clocks to be AHEAD ONE HOUR on Saturday Night before you go to sleep. Yes, we will be losing an hour of sleep. Between flooding and loss of sleep, the weekend promises to be a miserable weekend. However, just think of how we “SPRING AHEAD” and the word SPRING.
By the way, March 12, tomorrow, will be the anniversary of our major spring storm of 2010 that caused widespread flooding and severe wind damage. It brought the most utility outages caused by weather in utility company history.

Flooding Across New Jersey

As expected, Northern New Jersey’s Passaic River basin is experiencing major flooding. Some areas will approach historic flood stages which will result in widespread devastation. The worst will be near Pompton Plains, Lodi, and Pompton Lakes.

Elsewhere, many waterways are nearing flood stage. This map is somewhat misleading to those unfamiliar with how flooding works. Many gages are “near flood stage”, but many will see the waters go above flood stage as the runoff continues to head towards the waterways. Even some waterways not near flood stage right now will see rises throughout the day.

Excessive Rains Over New Jersey, Flooding Very Likely

The excessive rains have arrived in our region, as expected during this time frame. Rainfall rates of more than one-half inch per hour are easily occurring with this band that is forming right along a zone of convergence. The band has both a Gulf of Mexico connection and is also being aided by moisture from the Atlantic Ocean.

An additional one to two inches of rain will occur with this band (in less than 4 hours) as it lingers over New Jersey, before eventually pushing north and east. 19 of 21 counties in New Jersey are now under a flood warning of some sort, whether it is a general areal flood warning or a specific waterway flood warning. By sunrise, significant flooding will be in progress with low-lying areas, creeks, and streams and eventually this flooding will shift to the larger creeks and the rivers. Again, up in Northern New Jersey, flooding along the riverbeds has been in progress since the last heavy rain event.

For all the flood warnings: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=flood warning